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NEW ANALYSIS FROM FORMER TREASURY ECONOMIST CHRIS WALKER ESTIMATES THAT SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING YEARS. 14:46, 02 Jun 2025 UK households face

"fleeing" the UK after Labour Party government and Chancellor Rachel Reeves' changes on nom-doms. New analysis from former Treasury economist Chris Walker estimates that

significantly more departures are expected in the coming years. The new report found previous research "over-optimistic and incomplete". A Warwick University paper "Taxation

and Migration by the Super Rich", suggested a mere percentage of nom-doms would leave the UK. But that has now been refuted by research by the Centre for Economics and Business Research

(CEBR). The CEBR estimates that if 25 per cent of non-domiciled residents leave the UK, the net gain for the Treasury would be zero. READ MORE SMART MOTORWAYS COULD BE SCRAPPED FROM ENGLAND

ENTIRELY If departures exceed this 25 per cent threshold, the Treasury would begin to lose revenue rather than gain it. The report estimates 26,000 non-doms – out of 238,000 who claimed

non-dom status in the last 18 years – have left the UK based on figures from Henley & Partners on the number of millionaires leaving London in 2024. Chris Walker, founder of CW Economics

and the report’s author said: “It is clear that the original research that underpinned the Government’s decision to abolish non-dom status took a leap of faith. Article continues below

"Its methodology around predicting behavioural changes was too narrow and that led to very optimistic findings about the number of non-doms who would leave and the amount of tax revenue

the Treasury would raise." Commenting on the research, which was commissioned by pro-enterprise campaign group Land of Opportunity, shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith accused

Reeves of getting her “sums badly wrong”. “Investors and wealth creators leaving the UK for brighter shores is nothing short of disastrous for our economy. It also means we will all have to

pay higher taxes to make up the shortfall,” he said. Article continues below “Just like a company in turnaround, the Conservative Party is under new management. Whilst there is much further

to go, we are the only party unapologetically and consistently standing up for businesses and wealth creators.” Cebr managing economist Sam Miley said the government was “highly dependent”

on how many former non-doms it could keep in the UK. “For every non-dom deciding to relocate, the Treasury will not only lose the tax revenue from their income and gains, but also from their

day-to-day activities, with non-doms typically being high spenders as well as high earners,” Miley said.