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Election Results 2014: BJP Landslide Shatters Four Electoral Myths | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The results of India’s sixteenth general election challenge the common

understanding of contemporary Indian electoral politics in at least four ways. published by _Times of India_  on May 17, 2014 PROGRAM SOUTH ASIA The South Asia Program informs policy debates

relating to the region’s security, economy, and political development. From strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific to India’s internal dynamics and U.S. engagement with the region, the

program offers in-depth, rigorous research and analysis on South Asia’s most critical challenges. Learn More PROJECT INDIA DECIDES 2014 India Decides 2014 provides timely analysis on India’s

national elections and their impact on the country’s economy, domestic policy, and foreign relations. It brings together insights from Carnegie’s experts in Washington, New Delhi, and

around the world. Learn More _Source: Times of India_ The 2014 elections have only just ended but analysts are already struggling to comprehend how the BJP's stunning electoral success,

deemed unlikely just one year ago, came to pass. The results of India's sixteenth general election challenge our common understanding of contemporary Indian electoral politics in at

least four ways. BJP CAN'T GO BEYOND ITS TRADITIONAL STRONGHOLDS First, the conventional wisdom was that the BJP was trapped by its traditional political and geographic boundaries,

deemed insurmountable thanks to the party's Hindutva agenda. Yet, the BJP has garnered an estimated one-third of the all-India vote, a massive improvement from 19% in 2009 and its

all-time best of 26% in 1998. This improvement was driven by sizeable vote swings in critical Hindi heartland states as well as smaller but significant gains in the South and East, neither

an area of traditional strength. These gains were possible thanks to Modi's persistent focus — in the national theatre of politics — on development and economic mobility. This message

aligned perfectly with the issues vexing most Indian voters; a post-poll conducted by CSDS found that in every state surveyed, voters identified development, inflation or corruption as their

most important election issue. To be clear, the BJP's saffron agenda has not vanished; recent campaign rhetoric and the party's manifesto confirm this. Yet, going forward,

deviation from the focus on governance and development could imperil these newfound gains. IT CAN'T STITCH UP ALLIANCES BETTER THAN CONGRESS A second assumption that was upturned in

this election was that Congress, not the BJP, had the advantage in alliance formation. Despite all the talk about its off-key "India Shining" mantra sinking the BJP in 2004, their

loss was more about the BJP's inability to forge the right alliances. This fed doubts about whether the BJP could construct effective alliances in 2014, especially with Modi at the

helm. Yet it was a Modi-led BJP that struck key deals over the past several months while the Congress, in contrast, was viewed as a sinking ship. Many observers dismissed the BJP's

alliance with the Lok Jan Shakti Party in Bihar, the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh, and the Haryana Janhit Congress as trivial. But such criticism overlooked the importance of small

shifts in vote share in a fragmented, first-past-the-post electoral system. SUPPORT FOR REGIONAL PARTIES IS GROWING A third assumption underpinning Indian elections since 1989 has been the

growth of regional parties. Between 1996 and 2009, the non-Congress, non-BJP share of the vote has hovered around 50%, rising to a record 53% in 2009. The 2014 election, though, saw a

decline in regional party support; their nation-wide vote share dipped to roughly 47%, reversing the prevailing trend. Two players merit special attention here. The first is the evisceration

of the BSP. Mayawati may draw a blank in Uttar Pradesh while the hard-fought inroads she made in other Hindi heartland states simply evaporated. The second is the weakening of the Left. At

a time of rising inequality and concerns over crony capitalism, the conditions would seem propitious for a Leftist revival; instead we are witnessing their collapse. LOK SABHA POLLS ARE A

SUM OF STATE VERDICTS A fourth assumption has been that national elections are best understood as an aggregation of state verdicts. The 2014 election outcome, however, is a partial reversal

of "derivative" national elections. Not only was this election marked by presidential overtones, but the animating issues—namely, the slumping economy—have also been pan-Indian.

Despite this apparent shift, there are two caveats to the "nationalization" thesis. First, states still remain the most important tier of government for ordinary Indians. This is

reflected in the fact that, notwithstanding the record voter turnout in these Lok Sabha polls, turnout for state elections is still 4.5% higher, on average, in any given state. Second, much

of the south remained resistant to the BJP's charms. Although the BJP picked up new seats in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, its advances were limited and much smaller than

in the north. These facts suggest a far-reaching realignment of Indian politics. Whether this is ephemeral or enduring will depend on what a Modi-led BJP chooses to do with its historic

mandate. This article was originally published by the _Times of India_. Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the

author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees. PROGRAM SOUTH ASIA The South Asia Program informs policy debates relating to the region’s

security, economy, and political development. From strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific to India’s internal dynamics and U.S. engagement with the region, the program offers in-depth,

rigorous research and analysis on South Asia’s most critical challenges. Learn More PROJECT INDIA DECIDES 2014 India Decides 2014 provides timely analysis on India’s national elections and

their impact on the country’s economy, domestic policy, and foreign relations. It brings together insights from Carnegie’s experts in Washington, New Delhi, and around the world. Learn More