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If you are a strong swimmer the most dangerous thing you can do is to attempt to rescue a non-swimmer who is drowning. The non-swimmer can pull you down and end up drowning both the rescuer

and the victim. Germany finds itself in a similar situation in the euro zone. It is the strongest economy in the euro zone and is surrounded by non-swimmers who are demanding to be rescued.

The threat to the euro zone is not that Greece, or Spain, or Italy will leave. They will do all they can to stay in the euro zone because it’s their lifeline for survival. The potential

threat is that the strongest swimmer Germany could walk away before being dragged down too and the impact of this is seen on the long term monthly euro chart. The euro-dollar monthly chart

is dominated by a strong and well established downward trend that has been in place starting May 2011 from the high at $1.49. The price has moved up to the line and then retreated from the

downtrend line. This is a powerful resistance feature on the chart. On current values, the euro must move to $1.29 to break above the value of the downtrend line. The $1.24 support level

defined the limits of euro weakness in 2008 and 2009. The downward trend pressure is well established so there is an increasing probability the euro will continue to fall below $1.24. The

next down side support is near $1.16. This is a relatively minor support level established in 2005. This level has not been strongly tested so traders will treat any consolidation in this

area with caution. The $1.16 level is the first downside target. The acceleration and spread of the Greek problems to Spain and other countries has the potential to drag the Euro to test

support near $1.16. If Germany moves along the path of leaving the euro then the $1.16 target will be exceeded. The next lower historical support level is near $1.07. The euro-dollar move

below 1.07 does not move into uncharted territory and nor is it unthinkable. In 2001 the Euro was trading at $0.88. _Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of

the Chinese for Financial Traders –_www.guppytraders.com_. He is a regular guest on CNBCAsia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe._ _If

you would like Daryl to chart a specific stock, commodity or currency, please write to us at [email protected]_. We welcome all questions, comments and requests._ _CNBC assumes no

responsibility for any losses, damages or liability whatsoever suffered or incurred by any person, resulting from or attributable to the use of the information published on this site. User

is using this information at his/her sole risk._