Gold nears $1,300, but analysts say it's not a 'buy'

Gold nears $1,300, but analysts say it's not a 'buy'


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A customer examines a selection of gold bars from Swiss manufacturer Argor Hebaeus SA. Akos Stiller | Bloomberg | Getty Images Gold soared almost 3 percent to a two-and-a-half week high on


Thursday after dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, but analysts are still not convinced the metal is a good long-term buy. Bernanke stressed on Wednesday that U.S.


monetary policy would remain "highly accommodative for the foreseeable future", in order to combat stubbornly high unemployment. His comments sparked a rally in bullion, which has


now clocked its longest winning streak since April. (_Read More_: Global Markets Sigh in Relief on Bernanke Comments) However, analysts said the rally, which saw gold prices reach $1,298 per


troy ounce on Thursday, is unsustainable, and more downside should be expected. Gary Clark, analyst at Roubini Global Economics, said the rally offered a good selling opportunity, and said


gold prices were too unstable for investors to consider a buy-and-hold strategy. "I see these rallies in the gold price still as selling opportunities. The current rally is really being


driven by tightness in the physical market and that has been reflected by a rise of gold lease rates, and also the more accommodative language coming from Ben Bernanke," Clark told


CNBC. (_Read More_; Fed Speak Has Some Expecting QE End in December) Clark said that while gold lease rates were at their highest level since the financial crisis, this will not drive prices


higher in the long-term. "On this occasion, its more idiosyncratic factors to do with supply which are driving up those lease rates, driving up the gold price at the moment. But we


haven't seen a rise in tail risk, so that rally should not be sustained," he said. Chris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics, agreed that there was no strong case to be a long-term


buyer of the precious metal, even though it has fallen considerably from its 2011 highs, when it peaked at $1,900. He warned that gold could prove to be a bubble that "will fully


deflate", sending prices back to $300-$400 per ounce. (_Read More_: Why Gold Bugs May Wish for a China Hard Landing) "One has to be a long-term buyer surely, but what makes you a


long term buyer of gold and at what price? Not at these levels," said Watling. Clark added that gold prices, which remain 25 percent lower on the year, would not stabilize before the


end of 2014, as real interest rates are nowhere near normalizing. "The gold price is very much driven by the real rate. There is a lot of volatility in the real rate at the moment, as a


result of the QE3 [the third round of quantitative easing] tapering talk, and we are not going to see normalization until the end of next year," he said. (_Read More_: Weak China Data


Flags More Bad News for Copper) The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) revealed a split between members over when to start easing off the $85 billion a month asset-buying


program. Around half of the 19 members wanted tapering to start soon, while "many" others were in favor of the Fed continuing asset purchases into 2014. "I think gold


investors really should be positioning for a U.S. recovery, and the end of QE and a renormalization of rates," said Clark. "At that point, the gold price will have fallen to a


level which is more sustainable. It still has an important role to play as a hedge against inflation and tail risk, but I think there is further to go on the downside." —_By CNBC's


Jenny Cosgrave: Follow her on Twitter @jenny_cosgrave_