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The assembled crowd laughed, groaned, and cheered at Boisdales in the City on Wednesday night when Nigel Farage took the toasts and then refused to give any answers to prompts that many had

been making. Would he return to the political fray? “I genuinely don’t know”, he said, and then he suggested he would think about it over the next few weeks. Earlier one of his sons, in his

speech, mostly about fishing off Cornwall, had hinted that a decision might be coming. The 300 odd guests, oiled with Farage’s own brand gin, were knowingly disappointed - except perhaps

Angelos Frangopoulos - his boss at GBNews who cannot be looking forward to his main ratings star exchanging early evening greasepaint for political warpaint. But elsewhere, the crowd of

family friends, political supporters, and allies over the past 30 years, the mood wasn’t one of if he will come back, but when. And for Nigel Farage that is key. The fact is that Reform is

getting along without him very well. Under Richard Tice’s leadership, the party has gone from its founding 2% to 16% in today’s Yougov poll, far outstripping the Lib Democrats who with their

anonymous leadership seem to have disappeared under a hogwartian cloak of invisibility. It is not just that, they are now within 4% of the Conservatives numbers which is essentially within

the margin of error of most polling companies. Tice has managed this through dint of his own hard work - and let’s be honest in the first couple of years money, and a dedicated and

phenomenally hardworking team of staff, some full time, some part time, a couple of contractors (including this author) and volunteers. Most work from home, though there is a small office,

on a small business estate, in a small town in the Midlands. In the last 12 months, Reform has taken £1.8m in donations. Meanwhile the so-called grown up parties have taken £41 million

(Tories) £36m (Labour) and even the Lib Dems have taken over £8m. A few months ago, the Lib Dems hosted an away day for their 150 odd paid staff to discuss the fantasy possibility of Edmania

during the election. Reform’s team could be fully fed with a few bowls of Nando’s hot wings. But in that room on Wednesday night, alongside the slurring journalists, Tory outcasts and

veterans of Farage’s previous political incarnations there was also money. Serious money. According to one senior lobby figure: “I counted over £4 billion in the room”. Farage knows that to

rejoin the fray isn’t a matter of a whirlwind 6 week short season run at the Palladium, but a constant tour of little repertory theatres up and down the country, and the run would be for at

least 6 years. That would be 6 years of sheer hard work. Right now he is having fun, he can go where he wants, say what he wants, and get handsomely paid for it. But right now is also an

opportunity that may not come again, the chance to completely reshape British politics in a way that could only be imagined after the event. Nothing could tempt Farage more than to leave his

country happier, wealthier and more content than than he found it. The changes that he inspired and wrought on the UK altered ts constitutional settlement and to a large extent (Yes, the

border down the Irish sea is unfinished business) freed his nation from its liberty-sapping entanglement with the European Union. His presence and work made that referendum possible, without

his Kentish, and then, ale-fueled dynamo, the concept of Brexit would have been still born. The new project is just as radical, that is to replace the Conservatives as the voice of the

ordinary, centre-right majority of the country. Richard Tice is doing an admirable job, but with Farage on his side in the party, is looking at a sell-out run at the General election and

beyond. What is now touching distance at the polls with the Conservatives would almost instantly see the outsiders overtake them at the rails, and once that happens, the election pivot would

be reached and Tory support could flood to Reform. Our venerable First Past the Post electoral system is a nightmare for new entrants into politics as UKIP found in 2014, but when the

ratchet point is reached, it is ruthless. The Liberal Party had a majority of 129 in 1906, but after that was never in Government again because Labour replaced them as the party of the

working class. Today the patriotic working class no longer have a party. With a Farage leadership, that party could easily become Reform UK. Without them, the conservatives cease to exist as

a serious force.