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Research and analysis SPI-M-O: SUMMARY OF MODELLING FOR SCENARIOS FOR COVID-19 AUTUMN AND WINTER 2021 TO 2022, 13 OCTOBER 2021 Statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on

Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O). Get emails about this page DOCUMENTS SPI-M-O: SUMMARY OF MODELLING FOR SCENARIOS FOR COVID-19 AUTUMN AND WINTER 2021 TO 2022, 13 OCTOBER 2021 PDF,

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DETAILS Paper from SPI-M-O summarising modelling for scenarios for autumn and winter 2021 to 2022. It was considered at SAGE 96 on 14 October 2021. The paper is the assessment of the

evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. This paper should be read alongside the accompanying modelling papers from SAGE 96: *

University of Warwick: Projections of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease until June 2022 - the action of waning efficacy and boosters, 12 October 2021 * LSHTM: autumn–winter

scenarios 2021 to 2022, 13 October 2021 * Imperial College London: autumn and winter 2021 to 2022: potential COVID-19 epidemic trajectories - Part 1, 13 October 2021 * University of Bristol:

Trade off between population immunity and return-to-work for COVID-19 control, autumn and winter 2021 scenarios, 12 October 2021 These documents are released as pre-print publications that

have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this

evidence in peer-reviewed journals. Redactions in this document have been made to remove any security markings. UPDATES TO THIS PAGE Published 22 October 2021 SIGN UP FOR EMAILS OR PRINT

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