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ABSTRACT Poor air quality causes an estimated 2.6–4.4 million premature deaths per year1,2,3. Hazardous conditions form when meteorological components allow the accumulation of pollutants in

the near-surface atmosphere4,5,6,7,8. Global-warming-driven changes to atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle9,10,11,12,13 are expected to alter the meteorological components

that control pollutant build-up and dispersal5,6,7,8,14, but the magnitude, direction, geographic footprint and public health impact of this alteration remain unclear7,8. We used an air

stagnation index and an ensemble of bias-corrected climate model simulations to quantify the response of stagnation occurrence and persistence to global warming. Our analysis projects

increases in stagnation occurrence that cover 55% of the current global population, with areas of increase affecting ten times more people than areas of decrease. By the late twenty-first

century, robust increases of up to 40 days per year are projected throughout the majority of the tropics and subtropics, as well as within isolated mid-latitude regions. Potential impacts

over India, Mexico and the western US are particularly acute owing to the intersection of large populations and increases in the persistence of stagnation events, including those of extreme

duration. These results indicate that anthropogenic climate change is likely to alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets. Access through your

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BEING VIEWED BY OTHERS INTENSIFIED EXPOSURE TO COMPOUND EXTREME HEAT AND OZONE POLLUTION IN SUMMER ACROSS CHINESE CITIES Article Open access 27 February 2025 ATMOSPHERIC HEALTH BURDEN ACROSS

THE CENTURY AND THE ACCELERATING IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE COMPARED TO POLLUTION Article Open access 30 October 2024 IMPACTS OF CURRENT AND CLIMATE INDUCED CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC STAGNATION ON

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hydrological impact assessments: A case study of the United States. _J. Geophys. Res._ 115, D14116 (2010). Article  Google Scholar  Download references ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We acknowledge the

World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Supplementary Table 2) for

producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provided coordinating support and led

development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. CMAP, GPCP, UDel, and NCEP-R2 reanalysis data were provided by the

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration from their Web site (www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/). ERA-Interim reanalysis data were provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting at

their web site (www.ecmwf.int/). AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA Daniel

E. Horton, Christopher B. Skinner, Deepti Singh & Noah S. Diffenbaugh * Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA Daniel E. Horton & 

Noah S. Diffenbaugh Authors * Daniel E. Horton View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Christopher B. Skinner View author publications You can

also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Deepti Singh View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Noah S. Diffenbaugh View author

publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS D.E.H. and N.S.D. conceived the study. D.E.H. performed the analysis. D.S. and C.B.S. contributed

analysis tools. All co-authors co-wrote the manuscript. CORRESPONDING AUTHOR Correspondence to Daniel E. Horton. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS The authors declare no competing

financial interests. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION (PDF 18467 KB) RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Reprints and permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE Horton, D.,

Skinner, C., Singh, D. _et al._ Occurrence and persistence of future atmospheric stagnation events. _Nature Clim Change_ 4, 698–703 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2272 Download

citation * Received: 10 March 2014 * Accepted: 14 May 2014 * Published: 22 June 2014 * Issue Date: August 2014 * DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2272 SHARE THIS ARTICLE Anyone you share

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