Exposure to international trade lowers green voting and worsens environmental attitudes

Exposure to international trade lowers green voting and worsens environmental attitudes


Play all audios:


ABSTRACT From a political perspective, advancing green agendas in democracies requires obtaining electoral support for parties and candidates proposing green platforms. It is therefore


crucial to understand the factors driving green voting and attitudes. Yet, limited research has explored the role of economic determinants in this context. In this study we show that


globalization, through the distributional consequences of import competition, is an important determinant of support for parties proposing green platforms. Our analysis covers the United


States and 15 countries of Western Europe, over the period 2000–2019, with trade exposure measured at the level of subnational geographic areas. We find that higher trade exposure leads to


lower support for more environmentalist parties and to more sceptical attitudes about climate change. Our empirical findings are in line with the theoretical channel of deprioritization of


environmental concerns, as trade-induced economic distress raises the salience of economic issues. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a preview of subscription content,


access via your institution ACCESS OPTIONS Access through your institution Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription $32.99


/ 30 days cancel any time Learn more Subscribe to this journal Receive 12 print issues and online access $209.00 per year only $17.42 per issue Learn more Buy this article * Purchase on


SpringerLink * Instant access to full article PDF Buy now Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout ADDITIONAL ACCESS OPTIONS: * Log in * Learn about


institutional subscriptions * Read our FAQs * Contact customer support SIMILAR CONTENT BEING VIEWED BY OTHERS CLIMATE CHANGE EXPERIENCES RAISE ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS AND PROMOTE GREEN VOTING


Article 07 February 2022 PARTY PREFERENCES FOR CLIMATE POLICY AND THE RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION IN SPAIN’S MULTILEVEL DEMOCRACY Article Open access 31 October 2024 RULE OF LAW, CORRUPTION


AND TRANSPARENCY IMPACTS ON GREEN GROWTH OF EAST ASIAN ECONOMIES Article Open access 09 September 2024 DATA AVAILABILITY The data analysed in this study are available in the Harvard


Dataverse repository at the following link: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/T4ZAHS ref. 25. All data are publicly available with one exception: individual data from the Gallup Poll Social


Series. The Gallup-based replication database is shared upon request with researchers who have access to Gallup data. CODE AVAILABILITY The data analysis was carried out in Stata and R. The


codes that generate and visualize the results reported in this study are available in the Harvard Dataverse repository at the following link: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/T4ZAHS ref. 25.


REFERENCES * Drews, S. & Van den Bergh, J. C. What explains public support for climate policies? A review of empirical and experimental studies. _Clim. Policy_ 16, 855–876 (2016).


Article  Google Scholar  * Hazlett, C. & Mildenberger, M. Wildfire exposure increases pro-environment voting within Democratic but not Republican areas. _Am. Polit. Sci. Rev._ 114,


1359–1365 (2020). Article  Google Scholar  * Hoffmann, R., Muttarak, R., Peisker, J. & Stanig, P. Climate change experiences raise environmental concerns and promote green voting. _Nat.


Clim. Change_ 12, 148–155 (2022). Article  Google Scholar  * Kahn, M. E. & Kotchen, M. J. Business cycle effects on concern about climate change: the chilling effect of recession. _Clim.


Change Econ._ 2, 257–273 (2011). Article  Google Scholar  * Autor, D. H., Dorn, D. & Hanson, G. H. The China syndrome: local labor market effects of import competition in the united


states. _Am. Econ. Rev._ 103, 2121–2168 (2013). Article  Google Scholar  * Inglehart, R. The silent revolution in Europe: intergenerational change in post-industrial societies. _Am. Polit.


Sci. Rev._ 65, 991–1017 (1971). Article  Google Scholar  * Weber, E. U. Experience-based and description-based perceptions of long-term risk: why global warming does not scare us (yet).


_Clim. Change_ 77, 103–120 (2006). Article  Google Scholar  * Kahn, M. E. & Matsusaka, J. G. Demand for environmental goods: evidence from voting patterns on California initiatives. _J.


Law Econ._ 40, 137–174 (1997). Article  Google Scholar  * Berthe, A. & Elie, L. Mechanisms explaining the impact of economic inequality on environmental deterioration. _Ecol. Econ._ 116,


191–200 (2015). Article  Google Scholar  * Vona, F. Job losses and political acceptability of climate policies: why the ‘job-killing’ argument is so persistent and how to overturn it.


_Clim. Policy_ 19, 524–532 (2019). Article  Google Scholar  * Colantone, I. & Stanig, P. The trade origins of economic nationalism: import competition and voting behavior in Western


europe. _Am. J. Polit. Sci._ 62, 936–953 (2018). Article  Google Scholar  * Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G. & Majlesi, K. et al. Importing political polarization? The electoral


consequences of rising trade exposure. _Am. Econ. Rev._ 110, 3139–3183 (2020). Article  Google Scholar  * Ballard-Rosa, C., Malik, M. A., Rickard, S. J. & Scheve, K. The economic origins


of authoritarian values: evidence from local trade shocks in the United Kingdom. _Comp. Polit. Stud._ 54, 2321–2353 (2021). Article  Google Scholar  * Gemenis, K., Katsanidou, A. &


Vasilopoulou, S. The politics of anti-environmentalism: positional issue framing by the European radical right. In _MPSA Annual Conference_, 12–15 (2012, Chicago, USA). * Colantone, I., Di


Lonardo, L., Margalit, Y. & Percoco, M. The political consequences of green policies: evidence from Italy. _Am. Polit. Sci. Rev._ 1–19 (2022); https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055423000308 *


McCright, A. M. & Dunlap, R. E. The politicization of climate change and polarization in the American public’s views of global warming, 2001–2010. _Sociol. Q._ 52, 155–194 (2011).


Article  Google Scholar  * Imai, K., Keele, L., Tingley, D. & Yamamoto, T. Unpacking the black box of causality: learning about causal mechanisms from experimental and observational


studies. _Am. Polit. Sci. Rev._ 105, 765–789 (2011). Article  Google Scholar  * Anelli, M., Colantone, I. & Stanig, P. Individual vulnerability to industrial robot adoption increases


support for the radical right. _Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA_ 118, e2111611118 (2021). Article  CAS  Google Scholar  * Hummels, D., Jørgensen, R., Munch, J. & Xiang, C. The wage effects of


offshoring: evidence from Danish matched worker–firm data. _Am. Econ. Rev._ 104, 1597–1629 (2014). Article  Google Scholar  * Bernard, A. B., Jensen, J. B. & Schott, P. K. Survival of


the best fit: exposure to low-wage countries and the (uneven) growth of US manufacturing plants. _J. Int. Econ._ 68, 219–237 (2006). Article  Google Scholar  * Autor, D. H., Dorn, D. &


Hanson, G. H. The China shock: learning from labor-market adjustment to large changes in trade. _Annu. Rev. Econ._ 8, 205–240 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Kollman, K., Hicken, A.,


Caramani, D., Backer, D. & Lublin, D. Constituency-level elections archive [data file and codebook] (Center for Political Studies, Univ. Michigan, 2016). * Bafumi, J. & Herron, M. C.


Leapfrog representation and extremism: a study of American voters and their members in congress. _Am. Polit. Sci. Rev._ 104, 519–542 (2010). Article  Google Scholar  * Volkens, A. et al.


The Manifesto Data Collection. Manifesto Project (MRG/CMP/MARPOR), version 2018a (WZB, 2018); https://doi.org/10.25522/manifesto.mpds.2018a * Bez, C., Bosetti, V., Colantone, I. &


Zanardi, M. Replication data for: exposure to international trade lowers green voting and worsens environmental attitudes (2023); https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/T4ZAHS Download references


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We are grateful to M. C. Attolini, Y. Filippone, P.-L. Mengel, G. Palladino, A. Pisa and Y. Stuka for excellent research assistance. We thank H.-G. Betz, J. Frieden, P.


Hall, P. Stanig, D. Tingley, F. Vona, and seminar participants at Paris School of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, University of Liverpool and at the ETSG Conference 2021 in Ghent, for


helpful comments and suggestions. AUTHOR INFORMATION Author notes * These authors contributed equally: Charlotte Bez, Valentina Bosetti, Italo Colantone, Maurizio Zanardi. AUTHORS AND


AFFILIATIONS * Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy Charlotte Bez * Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany Charlotte Bez * Bocconi University, Milan, Italy


Valentina Bosetti & Italo Colantone * RFF-CMCC European Institute of Economics and the Environment, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce, Italy Valentina Bosetti *


Baffi-Carefin Research Centre, Milan, Italy Italo Colantone * CESifo, Munich, Germany Italo Colantone * FEEM, Milan, Italy Italo Colantone * University of Surrey, Guildford, UK Maurizio


Zanardi Authors * Charlotte Bez View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Valentina Bosetti View author publications You can also search for this


author inPubMed Google Scholar * Italo Colantone View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Maurizio Zanardi View author publications You can


also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS The initial research idea stems from I.C. and M.Z. C.B. was mainly responsible for preparing the election data for Europe,


and the attitudes data for the United States and for Europe. M.Z. prepared the election data for the United States. I.C. and M.Z. prepared the trade exposure indicators. C.B., I.C. and M.Z.


wrote the code and carried out the regression analysis. C.B. produced the figures. C.B., I.C. and M.Z. produced the tables. V.B. gave conceptual guidance and supported the theoretical


framing and interpretation of the findings. I.C. wrote the original draft, and C.B., V.B. and M.Z. reviewed and edited the manuscript. CORRESPONDING AUTHORS Correspondence to Charlotte Bez


or Valentina Bosetti. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS The authors declare no competing interests. PEER REVIEW PEER REVIEW INFORMATION _Nature Climate Change_ thanks the anonymous


reviewers for their contribution to the peer review of this work. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PUBLISHER’S NOTE Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published


maps and institutional affiliations. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary Tables 1–42 and Fig. 1. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a


society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript


version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Reprints and permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE Bez, C., Bosetti, V.,


Colantone, I. _et al._ Exposure to international trade lowers green voting and worsens environmental attitudes. _Nat. Clim. Chang._ 13, 1131–1135 (2023).


https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01789-z Download citation * Received: 19 March 2022 * Accepted: 02 August 2023 * Published: 14 September 2023 * Issue Date: October 2023 * DOI:


https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01789-z SHARE THIS ARTICLE Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Get shareable link Sorry, a shareable link is not


currently available for this article. Copy to clipboard Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative