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ABSTRACT Twenty-first-century challenges for food and nutrition security include the spread of obesity worldwide and persistent undernutrition in vulnerable populations, along with continued

micronutrient deficiencies. Climate change, increasing incomes and evolving diets complicate the search for sustainable solutions. Projecting to the year 2050, we explore future

macronutrient and micronutrient adequacy with combined biophysical and socioeconomic scenarios that are country-specific. In all scenarios for 2050, the average benefits of widely shared

economic growth, if achieved, are much greater than the modelled negative effects of climate change. Average macronutrient availability in 2050 at the country level appears adequate in all

but the poorest countries. Many regions, however, will continue to have critical micronutrient inadequacies. Climate change alters micronutrient availability in some regions more than

others. These findings indicate that the greatest food security challenge in 2050 will be providing nutritious diets rather than adequate calories. Research priorities and policies should

emphasize nutritional quality by increasing availability and affordability of nutrient-dense foods and improving dietary diversity. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a

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MALNUTRITION ALSO GENERATE HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS Article 24 July 2023 GLOBAL DIETARY CONVERGENCE FROM 1970 TO 2010 ALTERED INEQUALITY IN AGRICULTURE, NUTRITION AND HEALTH Article

19 March 2021 CLIMATE-FRIENDLY AND NUTRITION-SENSITIVE INTERVENTIONS CAN CLOSE THE GLOBAL DIETARY NUTRIENT GAP WHILE REDUCING GHG EMISSIONS Article 23 December 2022 DATA AVAILABILITY The

data and code used for this analysis are available for download at https://github.com/GeraldCNelson/nutrientModeling. The software code is open source under the GNU General Public License,

version 3 or higher. Country-specific modelling results and more detailed information on modelling are available for download at http://impactnutrients.ifpri.org/nutrientModeling/. The

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors thank their respective institutions for support. CSIRO authors acknowledge funding from the CSIRO Science Leaders Programme, the CGIAR Research Programme on

Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (grant no. 20140604, CCAFS CSIRO Sustainable diets) and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (grant no. OPP1134229). IFPRI authors acknowledge

the financial support of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM), Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH) and CCAFS. K.L. acknowledges financial support

from HarvestPlus. J.A. acknowledges the World Food Center at UC Davis for providing initial support for her involvement in this effort. D.G. acknowledges the financial contributions provided

by the ILSI Research Foundation and related partners for its initial support of his participation. The authors also thank J. W. Jones for suggesting the methodological approach used here,

E. Fern for guidance in the use of the nutrient balance score, S. Wood for insights into choice of diversity metrics, Z. Li for R code for Rao’s quadratic entropy measure and A. Bunning and

L. Unnevehr for helpful comments on earlier drafts. Any errors are the responsibility of the authors. AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * University of Illinois, Urbana–Champaign,

Champaign, IL, USA Gerald Nelson * Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia Jessica Bogard, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Brendan Power & 

Mario Herrero * International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, USA Keith Lividini, Timothy B. Sulser, Keith Wiebe & Mark Rosegrant * Program in International and Community

Nutrition, Department of Nutrition, University of California, Davis, CA, USA Joanne Arsenault * Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Health and Biosecurity,

Adelaide, South Australia, Australia Malcolm Riley * Independent Scientist, St Louis, MO, USA David Gustafson * Nestlé Research Centre, Vers-chez-les-Blancs, Lausanne, Switzerland Karen

Cooper * Bioversity International, Heverlee, Belgium Roseline Remans * Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands Roseline Remans Authors * Gerald Nelson View author publications You

can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Jessica Bogard View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Keith Lividini View author

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Riley View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Timothy B. Sulser View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google

Scholar * Daniel Mason-D’Croz View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Brendan Power View author publications You can also search for this

author inPubMed Google Scholar * David Gustafson View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Mario Herrero View author publications You can also

search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Keith Wiebe View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Karen Cooper View author publications You

can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Roseline Remans View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Mark Rosegrant View author

publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS G.N. is corresponding author. G.N., M.H., D.G. and K.W. conceived and planned the paper. G.N., J.B.,

and K.L. wrote the paper with edits from all authors. J.B., K.L., J.A., M.R. and K.C. were responsible for data selection and manipulation for the nutrient content and interpretation of

nutrient results. T.S., D.M., K.W. and M.R. were responsible for development and implementation of the socioeconomic modelling, including links to climate model outputs. D.G., K.C. and R.R.

were responsible for metric choice and details of implementation. G.N. and B.P. developed the R code used to produce the results. All authors provided ongoing comments and edits from initial

inception to delivery of final version. CORRESPONDING AUTHOR Correspondence to Gerald Nelson. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS The authors declare that they have no competing

financial or nonfinancial interests. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PUBLISHER’S NOTE: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional

affiliations. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary Figs. 1–17, Supplementary Tables 1–7, Supplementary references 1–60. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Reprints and

permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE Nelson, G., Bogard, J., Lividini, K. _et al._ Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century. _Nat

Sustain_ 1, 773–781 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0192-z Download citation * Received: 30 August 2017 * Accepted: 14 November 2018 * Published: 14 December 2018 * Issue Date:

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