
Hurricanes are fiercely unpredictable—but this may help
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Peak storm season has hit the Atlantic. Last month, Hurricane Lane sent flash floods and mudslides coursing through Hawaii's Big Island as Maui weathered fire from broken power
lines—just a hint of the destruction these powerful storms can wreak. Hurricanes can claim thousands of lives and cause billions of dollars of damage. But we know relatively little about
them, and their paths can be difficult to predict. Meteorologists have high hopes for a proof-of-concept satellite recently launched by the European Space Agency. This cutting-edge machine
will fire a laser through space to track the movement of particles through Earth's atmosphere. In other words, it will track wind. Hurricanes are towering cyclones of wind and cloud
that build up over warm waters in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. As warm air rises from near the ocean surface it leaves areas of lower pressure air below. Higher pressure air
flows into these regions, before it too warms and rises. Eventually, this rising warm, moist air cools and forms clouds. Evaporating water from the surface of the ocean fuels a storm's
growing column of wind and clouds, which churns round and round like a spinning top. When winds hit 74 miles per hour, a tropical storm becomes a hurricane. As average global temperatures
have warmed, hurricanes have become more intense. As this trend continues, the importance of understanding these violent cyclones grows with each passing year. Agencies such as the Federal
Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) use weather forecasts to work out how to deploy resources, supplies and personnel in advance of a hurricane, a spokesperson told _Newsweek_. Predictions
are crucial for local authorities to organize evacuations, shelters and school closures. But this data is far from perfect. "Hurricane warnings for a potential landfalling storm are
normally disseminated to the public about 36 hours in advance," Christopher Velden of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, an expert on hurricane research and environmental satellites,
told _Newsweek_. "Any new observations, model guidance, or science that can allow earlier warnings will be a benefit to preparation time and public safety." To understand wind,
meteorologists release hundreds of weather balloons carrying devices called "radiosondes" into the skies. Although they give scientists "a really accurate" picture of
temperature, humidity and wind structures right through the atmosphere, "you just can't fly them everywhere," John Remedios, director of the U.K.'s National Centre for
Earth Observation, told _Newsweek_. Balloons aren't released over vast swathes of ocean—crucial areas where hurricanes build. Certain regions over the tropics, he said, are currently
observed by scatterometers: microwave radar sensors that measure winds at the surface of the sea. Some existing satellites, Velden said, estimate winds by proxy of moving clouds and
moisture. They're fairly accurate, he said, but only give you a picture of winds above the cloud tops. Satellites, wind balloons and airplane lidars feed crucial data into numerical
weather prediction models. But their accuracy is limited by the data we are still missing. The Aeolus satellite, launched August 22 from the European Spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana,
looks set to fill in some of these gaps. If successful, the experimental instrument—named for the Ancient Greek keeper of the winds—will build a picture of wind that would otherwise go
unmapped. Its laser should be able to capture the cross-section of a hurricane: A vertical profile of its twisting streams of wind. Wind profiles, Velden explained, are crucial for numerical
models to build an accurate picture of the processes that drive weather. But Aeolus isn't a magic bullet for storm prediction. In an ideal world, the satellite would be just one of a
constellation that worked together to provide a more comprehensive dataset. Instead it will traverse its sun-synchronous orbit alone. Airbus's Aeolus project manager, Richard Wimmer,
hopes the success of the mission will inspire more funding for future constellations. Until it has proven its worth, it is unlikely other satellites will follow, the European Space
Agency's Earth Observation Programs director, Josef Aschbacher, told _Newsweek_. Other agencies with similar ambitions, Ashbacher said, will be waiting on the results before they dip
their own toes in the water. "At the moment everybody's waiting [to see if this satellite works]…they are waiting for Europe to succeed." And if Aeolus works, he added, it
will be no easy task to create another similar satellite. Fiercely proud of the project, he told journalists in Kourou that Aeolus is "a masterpiece of engineering." Europe has
developed keen skills and specific expertise that other regions may struggle to replicate, he told _Newsweek_. Development of the satellite was beset by technical problems and spiralling
costs. Engineers admit they almost gave up on getting the $560 million satellite finished. In the end, it faced more than a decade of delays. Aeolus's nominal lifetime is just three and
a half years, leaving the very real prospect meteorologists will once again miss out on a vital chunk of wind data. "There will be a period again where [meteorologists] potentially
lose the data," Wimmer said. But the input it provides over the course of its lifetime will improve the accuracy of weather models in the future, he added. Aschbacher agrees. "The
feeding of new data will not happen until a new generation, a new operational system, is in place. But you will still have a lasting benefit because of this better information—you can refine
and better tune your weather prediction models." Day-to-day predictions, as well as our understanding of storms and hurricanes, should see a marked improvement once Aeolus is up and
running. A global view will help meteorologists track the activity in the tropics and the Atlantic ocean that will impact weather over Europe days later. "There will always be an
unpredictable element to weather forecasting," Velden said. "The weather models we employ to mimic our atmosphere's behavior will never be perfect." But Aeolus, he hopes,
will be "another step in the right direction."