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August is often the month when lightning strikes from a clear blue sky. Most obviously, one thinks of 1914 and 1939. More recently, Russian tanks invaded Czechoslovakia in August 1968 and in

August 1991 an attempted coup brought the Soviet Union to an end. Next week, global leaders gather in Biarritz. Should they be expecting a shock? The most obvious trigger is Hong Kong.

Beijing has moved thousands of troops to the border and has repeatedly threatened to use them. It would, the Chinese say, take them ten minutes to mount a military operation. It took the

Japanese two weeks to take Hong Kong in 1941; this time resistance would be futile. Yet the damage such an occupation would do is incalculable. Without a shot being fired, one of the world’s

most important economic hubs would be virtually destroyed. By breaking a solemn treaty, Beijing would immediately isolate itself from the West. A reversion to the totalitarian methods of

the Mao era, of which there are already warning signs, would become far more likely. Apart from the two world wars, such an act of self-harm by one of the world’s most advanced economies

would be unprecedented. For China, the effects would be catastrophic. For global stability, they would be almost as serious. Some of Europe’s precariously balanced economies, notably Britain

and Germany, would tip into recession. For Asia, the impact would be even greater. Even America would feel the chill. Hong Kong, however, is not the only risk. From Korea to Kashmir, from

the Straits of Hormuz to the South China Sea, threats of confrontation and conflict are proliferating. In such a febrile atmosphere, sometimes it only takes a single incident — the

assassination of an archduke or some other act of terrorism, for example — to set the world ablaze. This time Britain is one of the risk factors. A no-deal Brexit is now more likely than

not. The impact on the world of such a parting of the ways might not amount to much: nothing more than a gradual reorientation of trade, an acceleration of European integration and a

reassertion of British sovereignty. In other words, no threat to anybody. Yet Brexit will be not merely an economic but also a political event. Politics is inherently unpredictable and it is

not impossible that Brexit will have unforeseen consequences. If the EU were to decide to treat the UK, not as a closely aligned former member, but as a hostile competitor, it may refuse to

negotiate a free trade agreement. In effect, it would impose a virtual blockade on trade in goods and services. There would also be a drastic decline in free movement and even tourism

between Britain and the Continent. Such an attempt by the EU to blockade Britain would be an act of self-harm almost as damaging as a Chinese occupation of Hong Kong. In the long run, Europe

would suffer more than Britain, as it has always done before. Napoleon’s attempt to exclude British commerce coincided with the Industrial Revolution. The nation of shopkeepers triumphed,

not merely in battle but by creating the first globalisation. But Emmanuel Macron is perhaps arrogant enough to ignore historical precedents. Jupiter might feel like hurling a thunderbolt or

two across the Channel. Nothing would be more welcome to Boris Johnson than such a fit of pique from those he calls “our European friends”. The Queen is reported to be exasperated with the

British political class and its inability to govern. Whether or not she says this sort of thing, it’s a fair criticism and a sentiment that is almost universally shared. Unfortunately it

applies to the the global political class no less than to the British one. A new world crisis could happen almost by accident. A few bad decisions in Beijing or Tehran, Pyongyang or Paris,

could plunge us all into the abyss. The outstanding disputes and tensions are all manageable. The question that will hang in the sultry air at Biarritz is: will the leaders gathered there

prove to be up to the job?