Boris may have won a battle, but the war has just begun | thearticle

Boris may have won a battle, but the war has just begun | thearticle


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You may recall a time, in the far off past, when British governments had things called “majorities”. Not narrow, spindly majorities putting them at the mercy of difficult backbenchers, nor


modest coalition majorities, allowing things to pass without issue — but with the number of issues passed sorely limited. Once upon a time — the time of Blair, Thatcher, and even of Brown


and Major — British government’s possessed majorities so vast they drank the Commons dry, decamped to opposition green benches, and swallowed up the cranks, crackpots, critics and


communists, rendering them utterly irrelevant. There was a time, not so long ago, when that was normality. Despite claims that the era of such majorities was gone for good, that time has now


come roaring back, with Boris Johnson — the man derided by the people who made that bold, foolhardy prediction — at its head, with a motivated party and an agenda at hand to drive himself


deep into his nation’s psyche, there to remain for all time. But for all he may appear like a triumphant general, Johnson’s campaign has only just got going. A crushing victory may have seen


off one foe, but what lies ahead is not five years of peace. Instead, he faces an insurgency — a constant war of attrition, with foes on all sides, both within and without. The first issue


is, of course, Brexit. Having promised to “get it done”, something that played well to a public sick of the sight of chaotic prevarication, Johnson will learn before long that this may not


be enough. Brexit has become a near myth — what wonders it can achieve, or what horrors it could unleash — and the Prime Minister, the figurehead of the campaign to leave, now has the sole


responsibility of ensuring that it is the former scenario that prevails. Should he not, his popularity will take a pummelling: This is his burden to shoulder. And, with January 2020


heralding merely the end of the first period of the Brexit process, it could be a painfully long five years, faced with a public that lost patience within three. But beyond that, the general


election victory may too have presented the Prime Minister with another issue: How to keep hold of his newly-won prize? Labour majorities in many seats that went Conservative had been


tending that way, slowly, for decades. But it should be remembered that for many, this was the first time in history any of them had returned a Tory MP. That trust has been lost so utterly


in Labour does not mean that it has been transferred to a party many people have been raised to view with hostility and suspicion. For now, Johnson and his party have only been lent


constituencies like Workington and Bishop Auckland. It has no right to them — and only fast, visible change will give them hope of retaining them at the next election. The Tories need to


prove to deprived areas they have now won that the cause of their deprivation was the system and party they have just ousted — and back that up with spending, on everything from


infrastructure and education to, of course, the NHS. The problem with this is that it flies in the face of much that the modern Tory party has held dear, right at the moment that the world


teeters on the precipice of another financial crisis. The taps they need to turn on may be harder to twist — a lot of resistance may come from within the party itself. And even if they do


manage to open them — with the effects of Brexit yet to be felt — how much cash is there to splash? On the health service, the one thing the party cannot afford to do is privatise it. But


privatisation, or at the very least, root and branch reform, is exactly what the NHS needs. As things stand, it is one of, if not the, worst performing healthcare system in the developed


world. But it is propped up by governments petrified of the wrath of a public who believe that any attempt to touch it will necessarily make it worse. That fear stems from the fact that


politicians in this country are broadly not trusted — a key facet of the vote to leave the EU three years ago was to utterly change the way in which Britain is governed, because MPs, many


felt, did not do their jobs of representing people, a fear confirmed by the next three years of obstinance. This plays into the question of how much, in reality, new Tory seats actually


trust the people they have empowered. Making the NHS better, while not giving the impression of betraying the public, will be a near impossible balancing act. Funding also needs to be found


elsewhere — for social care, the bane of Johnson’s predecessor — in education, in the criminal justice system, and in defence. The UK’s institutions are creaking — and in truth, it is hard


to remember an incoming government that had more on its to-do list than this one. All that against the backdrop of of Brexit. And, as if all this was not enough, there are the renewed calls


north of the border for a second referendum on Scottish independence from the rest of the UK. As things stand, Nicola Sturgeon has no legal mandate — but then neither did Catalonia. But


should the SNP decide to press ahead and hold one anyway, what options are open to London? A police crackdown against peaceful voters? Or let the Nats have their way, and bully Her Majesty’s


government? Neither option ends well for No 10. There is, though, one saving grace. Politically, the rest of the field is empty. Labour has taken the beating of a lifetime, the Brexit


Party’s surrender was confirmed weeks ago, and the Lib Dems, as if the mirage that they held relevance still held up, have now been confirmed as a fringe group, rather than a serious party


of government. And, what’s more, Labour now seem intent on delving into civil war — led by Corbynistas only marginally more respected than the father of the movement, and metropolitan


Remainers, one of whom crafted Labour’s hated Brexit policy of sitting on the fence, and another who has reportedly been unspeakably rude about the sort of people the party needs to win over


again. The next five years, then, appear busy and difficult for the Prime Minister, if by no means as nightmarish as the period he now leaves behind. But given that period in question,


there is no guarantee it will stay that way. Britain’s relationship with Europe has already ended the careers of four Tory prime ministers. No matter how big a majority, or how impressive a


performer — if Johnson survives the five years to make it to the next election, he will have defied the odds.