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Securing a thumping victory in the first round of a Tory leadership contest is a mixed blessing, as Team Boris knows only too well. Yes, the favourite has momentum behind him – meaning a

good number of careerist MPs are likely to throw their weight behind him in the hope of securing a plum job – but on the downside, the sizeable Stop Boris faction of the party has now very

much taken its gloves off. This morning, the five remaining candidates (Dominic Raab, Rory Stewart, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Sajid Javid) signed a pledge committing to take part in the

TV debates – a very obvious dig at Johnson, who is avoiding the Channel 4 one (though has agreed to the BBC one on Sunday) – and Jeremy Hunt even went as far as to accuse Johnson of not

living up to his hero, Winston Churchill. Since then, Matt Hancock – a liberal “moderniser”, fishing from the same pool of MPs as Rory Stewart – has announced that he’s pulling out of the

race. He and his supporters will now almost definitely join either Team Hunt or Team Gove, whichever Hancock believes has the better chance of defeating the favourite. And even if Boris

proves unstoppable at this stage of the competition, it’s still entirely possible that the members will not pick him. Yes, his robustly articulated patriotism and shaggy dog charm always go

down well with the middle aged, middle England Brexiteers who make up the vast majority of Conservative Party members and there’s always a frisson of excitement when he comes on stage at

Party Conference. And yes, Telegraph and Conservative Home polls put him in the lead. But with an electorate of only 160,000, even the best pollsters will struggle to get an accurate result

– and in any case The Telegraph, at least, can hardly be called unbiased. What’s more, though Lynton Crosby and his team have done an excellent job of keeping Boris out of trouble thus far

(his launch speech was one of the dullest we’ve heard from the ex Foreign Secretary), once hustings begin next Saturday, everything changes. Boris’s greatest enemy is Boris – and it seems

almost impossible that he’ll get through 16 events up and down the country without doing something so outrageous he starts to shed support. If Boris does indeed self destruct before the end

of this race, then don’t rule out a comeback from Michael Gove. He’s an excellent speaker (as he’s proved at the despatch box), has very good name recognition amongst the members, and would

almost certainly secure the support of Rory Stewart, which – given the momentum behind the International Development Secretary – could be crucial. The cocaine revelations last week hurt him

in the first round – but whereas his youthful indiscretions are now out in the open, rumours about his fellow candidates’ pasts are still flying. If your money is on Boris Johnson to be the

next Prime Minister, it’s probably wisest to leave it where it is. But this leadership race is going to run the whole course, meaning we’ll be waiting nearly six weeks before the new Prime

Minister is announced. And a summer is a long time in politics.