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Amid the drama elsewhere, the General Election results in London were rather dull. There are 73 constituencies in the capital. After the 2017 election Labour held 49, the Conservatives 21

and the Lib Dems three. Now the totals are… exactly the same. Though the Conservatives gained Kensington to Labour the Corbynista army conquered Putney — the only gain of the night for

Labour anywhere in the UK. Zac Goldsmith lost in Richmond to the Lib Dems, a high profile Tory casualty. But the Tories captured Carshalton and Wallington from the Lib Dems. So it all ended

up quits. In a way, Labour was lucky in London not to have a net loss of seats. Its vote share was 48.1 per cent, down 6.4 percentage points on 2017. The Conservative’s share was 32 per

cent, down by just 1.1 per cent. So the gap narrowed. Labour only beat the Conservatives in Dagenham and Rainham by 293 votes. The Lib Dems vote share was 14.1 per cent, a modest improvement

on last time. Their anti-Brexit message must have helped them in London, but the extra votes didn’t end up in the right places for them to get more seats. The upshot is that London remains

a huge electoral challenge for the Conservatives. To remain steady while making great strides elsewhere in the country implies that a trend of political decline continues. For much of the

rest of the country, London has come to represent not just the capital but an attitude of mind. It is the home of the metropolitan establishment. “Progressive” opinions on such matters as

identity politics are mainstream in London, while elsewhere such subjects are felt to be obscure and the views expressed eccentric. Many of Labour’s senior personnel represent London

constituencies — Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott, Emily Thornberry, Sir Keir Starmer, Barry Gardiner. For obvious reasons denouncing Labour as being the London party does Labour less harm in

London than elsewhere. Though I suppose, the more focused jibe about “Islington dinner parties” would resonate with some. There are also plenty of regular plain speaking folk in Romford,

Orpington and Ruislip — the sorts of places that don’t think of themselves as part of London anyway. That leaves Sadiq Khan as the strong favourite to be re-elected as Mayor of London on May

7th. But it would be a mistake to take the result for granted. The electorate is volatile. This is especially true of the young voters on whom Labour now relies. Rather than having built up

a habit of party loyalty, they have a consumer mentality towards what the different parties can offer. The new Labour leader will be announced a month before on April 4th. That may help

Labour — Jeremy Corbyn is pretty unpopular, even in London. Might his successor be given a “honeymoon period”? But if the contest is fractious and the new choice lacks popular appeal Labour

could struggle. The timetable increases the uncertainty. Also, after Brexit finally takes place on January 31st the Mayoral election can focus on Khan’s record. Most Londoners backed Remain

in the referendum and there has continued to be great strength of feeling, which Khan has championed. But that cause is lost. It is time to “move on.” Khan could not pretend that voting for

him will “stop Brexit” given that it will have already happened. If he complains too much about it, he risks sounding like an irrelevant curmudgeon. That gives the Tories an opportunity.

Khan’s record is poor. Crime is the biggest failing. Blaming central government for not providing enough money is unconvincing when his performance is measured against the rest of the

country. (The Council Tax precept has been pushed up but the money seems to be wasted on gimmicks and gestures.) Freedom of Information figures show the number of homicides, including

manslaughter, murder and infanticide, fell from 774 in 2018 to 650 last year in England and Wales. But in London, the number rose for the third successive year to 154, the highest since

2008. Khan is also Chairman of Transport for London. Big infrastructure projects have fallen behind on his watch. Crossrail, also known as the Elizabeth Line, was supposed to open over a

year ago. Another broken promise concerns housing. Khan promised to increase the supply of new homes. Instead, it has fallen during his time at City Hall. That is a key issue for those young

Londoners who are so keen to get on the housing ladder. Thus the Conservatives are in with a chance. Their candidate Shaun Bailey has yet to make much impact but soon the contest will get

much more attention. Attacking Khan’s record will not be enough and neither will worthy “motherhood and apple pie” offerings from Bailey. He needs to come up with some bold, radical

policies. It needs to be his own programme. It is no use trying to please everyone with bland messages. Tangible measures to cut crime, increase home-ownership and improve commuting will be

controversial. It would mean taking on vested interests. If the trade unions and assorted lobby groups are not complaining then the proposals probably aren’t strong enough. Some will

disagree, but that will only help the message resonate. There is still time for the election of Mayor of London to get interesting.