Reader TTS

In the space of two days Boris Johnson’s security policy has been partially derailed by not one but two serious rebellions against the Government. First came the threat of Tory rebellion

over Huawei, and Johnson’s policy U-turn in banning the company from Britain’s 5G networks. Only the next day, the Tory MP Julian Lewis orchestrated a coup to become chair of the influential

Intelligence Committee, beating Downing Street’s choice, Chris Grayling, to the post. In an act of immediate reprisal, Lewis had the Tory whip removed. Now an independent MP, it seems

highly unlikely that Lewis will cooperate with Downing Street when releasing the delayed report into Russian political interference in the UK. The report is widely expected to cause the

Government humiliation. It was Oliver Dowden, the Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, who announced that, from January next year, telecoms companies will be banned from buying

Huawei equipment. It was a surprising decision, only in that it has taken six months of pressure from both Tory MPs and allies in the US to reach this point. Even so, in security terms the

announcement was so full of holes as to be virtually meaningless in the short- to mid-term. There will be a full seven years, as things currently stand, during which Huawei’s technology will

remain in Britain’s 5G network. This gaping security hole suggests that a significant motivation for the ban was to deliver a PR coup for Donald Trump. The US president wasted no time in

taking full credit for “persuading” the UK to change course. Britain’s fealty in his China trade war is what Trump really prioritises. That is clearly the going rate for the Special

Relationship. Apart from the sub-optimal security outcome, the domestic ramifications have also been significant. The detail of the policy change shows how China has exploited divisions in

the UK between mandarins who allowed the deal to pass without political scrutiny in 2005, and the current array of hawkish Tory MPs. The political damage goes deep. Those with a keen memory

of pre-Covid days will remember Sir Mark Sedwill’s ousting of Gavin Williamson as defence secretary for allegedly leaking details from a national security council meeting on Huawei during

Theresa May’s Government. It is a sign of the renewed importance of the Huawei decision that Sedwill, a Huawei defender, was acrimoniously removed from post as the head of the Civil Service

less than a month ago. The details of the Huawei announcement illustrate the reluctance of Johnson’s government to pursue this decision, and the degree to which Government is still trying to

fudge its policy differences over China with our US allies. In January the Government told the telecoms industry that Huawei equipment could only be used in “non-core” elements of the 5G

network and that there would be a 35 per cent cap on its use in the wider network by 2023. Tuesday’s announcement was expected to enact a total ban on Huawei equipment in Britain’s networks

by 2025. In reality, after lobbying from telecoms companies, Huawei will not actually be removed from the 5G network until 2027 and will not be removed from the 3G, 4G or broadband networks

at all. The timeline for the new legislation enables the telecoms industry half a year to stock up on Huawei equipment which they can use for almost the next decade. Seen in these terms, the

announcement looks entirely toothless. Bob Seely, a leading Conservative hawk on China, was quick to ask why a date of 2027 had been specified when Telcos had indicated that they could

remove Huawei equipment by 2025. His concerns were echoed by Ian Duncan Smith. It is clear that this story is far from over and as many as 60 Tory MPs are set to sign amendments to the

Telecoms Infrastructure Bill later in the year in order to bring forward the 2027 date. The Huawei could spark the most serious Tory rebellion since Johnson’s landslide victory in December.

Tom Tugendhat, the influential chair of the foreign affairs select committee, immediately called the decision “a major victory for parliament” but a careful examination of the background to

the decision suggests that the real impetus for Johnson’s U-turn was a sophisticated change in US tactics, designed to ensure compliance on China policy from her allies. The leading

indicator of the reasoning behind the change in Government policy came from former MI6 chief John Sawyers in a _Financial Times_ article last week, entitled ‘The UK should bar Huawei from

its 5G network.” This was a volte-face from Sawyers’s position last January. Both Sawyers and the Government suddenly suggested “severe” security issues were behind the change of policy. In

reality the security issues stemmed from the new US sanctions regime. Washington’s change of rules which prohibited Huawei from using computer chips that rely on US technology designs, made

Johnson’s capitulation inevitable. After that change by the US, GCHQ’s specialist security evaluation unit could no longer guarantee the mitigation of security risks. In other words forcing

the replacement of American chips with their Chinese counterparts was an astute move by the US, as the UK could no longer offer security mitigation as an excuse for using Huawei. The

decision forces the UK into alignment with our 5 Eyes Intelligence partners. Australia had already decided in January that there were no security mitigation measures that would effectively

deny China access to their networks, were Huawei components to be used. It is no coincidence that the announcement came on the same day that the UK allowed the leak of information that a

British aircraft carrier would be permanently based in the Indo-Pacific region. China has sophisticated area denial capabilities in the South China Sea that mean that the UK will be almost

totally reliant on the US to protect and maintain that carrier’s deployment. Simultaneously, the UK and US announced a joint army modernisation agreement making the UK army amongst the most

significantly integrated with US forces. As James Heappey, Minister for the armed forces put it: “In an age of great power competition and constant conflict… it is a reminder that… Global

Britain remains the United States’s partner of choice.” This should be welcome news as Britain restarts the integrated defence review. Johnson looks sets to launch an ambitious realignment

to base British forces “East of Suez” for the first time since the 1960s. It should come as no surprise that in today’s world that feat is only possible with American support. The

machinations of the Huawei decision reveal the extent to which Britain’s status as America’s partner of choice means the UK has diminishing room for manoeuvre when it comes to a truly

independent security and defence policy. The economic cost of the Huawei decision cannot easily be softened. The political fallout will also be substantial, as Boris Johnson will likely be

forced to abandon his manifesto pledge to provide superfast broadband to every home and business in the UK by 2025. In continuing to prevaricate over Huawei it seems that the painful reality

has not yet fully registered with Boris Johnson that the realpolitik of “Global Britain” will come with costs both at home and abroad. Johnsonian prevarication will not work when it comes

to defence and security. It is already causing his policies to fray. Even while doing the bare minimum to placate Trump, it seems that Johnson’s own MPs are less tolerant and filling the

yawning security vacuum at the heart of Government, even if that means mutiny with all of its consequences.