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In the past week or so, there has been some extremely welcome news on the pandemic, with Pfizer and Moderna announcing highly promising Stage 3 results for their Covid-19 vaccines. There

could soon be similar announcements from within the UK.  After almost ten tortuous months, it is starting to feel that there is some end game for this dreadful pandemic. Perhaps by the

middle of 2021, there will be a return towards vague normality to some parts of the world, especially those where the vaccines have been developed. One of the main reasons why I have

remained more hopeful than others about an economic recovery-of-sorts from this mess, is because of my own early persuasion that the leading vaccine candidates would turn out to be

successful, and also quicker than many conventional vaccine observers believed.  In my last piece, I argued that due to these vaccine developments, a V-shaped recovery was more likely than

the idea of a W, which has grown in popularity as a result of the new lockdowns around Europe and tightened restrictions in some other parts of the world. I continue to believe in the

V-shaped recovery, although I also tried to make clear that this would say nothing about the durability, quality or fairness of recovery, especially beyond 2021. So how to turn the (v)accine

 into a (v)accinated — i.e. high quality and durable — recovery? There are a number of crucial necessities. First, as I argued in a recent Project Syndicate piece ( A No Brainer for the

G20), it is vital that all fruitful vaccines that emerged can be distributed as quickly as possible across the world. In this regard, a simple task for this weekend’s G20 meeting, hosted by

Saudi Arabia, is to immediately commit to the financial support to ACT-A, in order to facilitate the distribution of such vaccines and treatments and diagnostics to where they are most

needed. It is a no-brainer because the $35 billion required to cover all the ACT-A requirements, is approximately 0.1 per cent of global GDP. This number is peanuts compared to what many

countries continue to throw at their domestic economies to manage the fallout. It is not much more than the cost of three months peak furlough implementation in the UK, or equivalent to what

the four largest European countries have spent on the November lockdowns in their countries.  We need to get the right treatments, diagnostics and vaccines to the so-called emerging world,

especially those nations that have the best potential to become much larger economies in the future. I once dubbed the eleven largest populated group of these as the Next 11. Getting these

countries in a position to start delivering on their potential is not just a generous thing to do — it is enlightened self -interest. Over the last four decades, global GDP growth per annum

has been consistent: 3.3 per cent, 3.3 per cent, 3.7 per cent and 3.6 per cent. The last two decades, 2001-10 and 2011-20, have seen stronger growth than the previous two. This is almost

entirely because of China, but with input from India and other emerging economies. All major so-called developed regions have seen their growth rates trend lower. Over the coming  decade,

the only way world GDP growth has any chance of matching the better outcomes of the last two decades, is if the emerging world can grow faster, especially outside China, while productivity

increases boost growth the developed world. It is quite clear that China will grow less rapidly in this decade and beyond, purely because its labour force is close to peaking. Indeed, the

recent Chinese leadership gathering and subsequent statements expressing a plan for doubling GDP per capita (to around $20,000) by 2035 implies acceptance of a growth rate of around 4.5 per

cent per annum. This means that the heavy lifting for world growth needs to come from India, and other countries of similarly low income levels, such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, the 

Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, elsewhere in Asia, parts of Africa and beyond. Second, whatever happens with respect to monetary and fiscal policy in the coming months — and I am in the

camp that presumes policies should and will stay as accommodative as they are now — they certainly can’t help for the whole decade. In this sense, conventional tools of economic policy may

be “spent” in the West. So perhaps we should look at it as an opportunity to really push for productivity enhancing developments as an alternative. Fortunately, the Green revolution,

including the climate change agenda, could deliver a key part of the (v)accination for productivity that is required. Indeed, the UK Government has brought forward the deadline for halting

sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles, alongside policies to support and encourage our financial system to reward those who embrace the agenda. The trend of the stock market in 2020 to

reward those new technologies that promise to combat climate change is a very powerful development, in my view. We must hope that it is just the beginning. So perhaps the notion of a truly

productivity-enhancing Green investment revolution is showing signs of being realistic. Third, in this spirit, there exists an opportunity for more thoughtful ideas for regulatory policy. To

support a system that will hasten the shift to a non-fossil fuel world – without causing unexpected financial shocks — can surely be a credible path. For example, supporting financial

intermediaries in their capital adequacy ratios for supporting priority sectors. Historically, one might think this would be a huge philosophical challenge for most Anglo-Saxon economies,

but presumably the lessons of the Covid-19 pandemic and the climate challenge suggest change is necessary. Fourth, just as G20 policymakers need to act together to support ACT-A, they need

to put in place a proper system of readiness for other pandemic threats. And more broadly, as I have argued repeatedly, this crisis shows what is coming with antimicrobial resistance (AMR),

unless we have proper investment in healthcare systems and a mechanism for encouraging new research, development and production of antibiotics. Just as the $35 billion to support ACT-A is

peanuts, so is the likely cost of solving AMR. Moreover, with some smart adjustment of the incentives for business, especially the role of balance sheet tools, such as share buybacks, much

of these investments do not need to come from governments. Fifth, but crucial, is that we will soon have a new President in the US. President-elect Biden will try to improve the current

system of global governance, rather than destroy it, as witnessed under President Trump. As was shown by the co-ordinated response to the 2008 crisis, well-timed and executed global

co-operation is a true win-win experience for the complicated world in which we live. Let’s hope we can soon return to it. A MESSAGE FROM THEARTICLE _We are the only publication that’s

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