Reader TTS

It is a truth universally acknowledged that elections in Afghanistan will be plagued by corruption, controversy and claims of victory. As it has been in every election since 2004, so it has

been since the September 28 presidential poll with incumbent Ashraf Ghani and his rival Abdullah Abdullah. There had been hopes that, this time round, things might just be different, with

the introduction of biometric machines and voter lists confirming voters’ identities and, if all went well, curbing cheating. “It’s like Whac-A-Mole,” a senior diplomat said, referring to

the arcade game. “You introduce new methods to prevent fraud, and they come up with new ways to commit it.” If Whac-A-Mole reflects election day, what’s followed has been like Groundhog Day.

Ghani and Abdullah are each claiming victory even as the Independent Election Commission recounts votes across the country and debates whether the enormous number of contested votes should

be disqualified as ineligible. In some ways, it’s a repeat of the deeply flawed election of 2014, when Ghani and Abdullah faced off at the polling booth, and then before counting was even

complete started claiming victory and even, in Abdullah’s case, hinting at a violent takeover of the presidency if his rival didn’t concede. In the end, John Kerry, who was then US Secretary

of State, flew to Kabul several times, eventually talking the two men into a power-sharing agreement that can fairly be called a failure. The currency crashed, and the already-fragile

economy was dealt a crippling blow by the drawdown at the end of 2014 of most of the international military, as well as many aid groups. There will be no such compromise this time. Ghani,

Abdullah and US officials say it’s off the table because the prevailing conditions are different to those five years ago. Both candidates believe they have won more than 50 per cent of the

votes, enough to be declared president and avoid a runoff. As the vote count lurches on, there is no sign yet of a clear winner. Turnout was so low — 1.8 million of an electorate of more

than 9 million — that the question of legitimacy will stick to whoever is declared the victor. The Independent Election Commission told reporters late on Thursday that the recount was close

to completed and preliminary results could be announced in coming days. The IEC has made this promise at least twice since October. Around 300,000 votes are contested, according to election

officials, who have trotted out a long list of reasons for disqualifying ballots — they were recorded outside the voting hours. Or the biometrics didn’t match the voter. Or there were no

biometrics at all at that particular polling station. Whatever the reason, the counting and disqualifying continue with occasional announcements of the date on which the winner will be

named. Abdullah has said that he will not accept the result if any ballots his team deem to be fraudulent are included in the count. His supporters blocked a recount for weeks, declaring the

process flawed and biased against their candidate. Abdullah finally relented and the count continued. His obstinacy is not difficult to understand — he’s been here before, twice. He came

second in presidential elections in 2009 and 2014. In 2009, he stepped aside for Hamid Karzai, avoiding a second round of voting reportedly at the behest of international diplomats. In 2014,

Abdullah claimed to have won the first round outright, but agreed to a second round. Contested results sparked months of recounting in sheds in Kabul, and ended up with the Kerry compromise

of a “unity” government that has been anything but. Perhaps seeing this as his last chance, Abdullah has been vociferous in his demands for vote recounts and ballot disqualifications. And

still he looks unlikely to prevail. International monitors say with the biometrics and new voter registration rules that required Afghans to cast their ballots at specific polling stations,

this year’s was the most complex election the Afghans have ever conducted; problems were to be expected. The election, and the interminable counting, coincide with on-again off-again talks

between the US and the Taliban, as part of a “peace process” that has recently been re-started by Donald Trump. Whoever wins the presidency will inherit whatever deal Washington makes with

the Taliban. For now, Trump’s envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad, briefs both Ghani and Abdullah on the status of the discussions. The election commission has repeatedly said the delay in announcing

results is to ensure things are done correctly. The United Nations’ special representative, Tadamichi Yamamoto, has urged patience, saying that stakeholders want to ensure the electoral

process is as transparent and credible as possible. “When the election is completed with credibility, it will become a milestone in the history of establishing a representative political

system of the country,” he told the UN Security Council. In the run up to the vote, diplomats here voiced concerns that if the election were done half-heartedly, or not executed well, the

whole election process in Afghanistan could be called into question. Turnout could have been suppressed for a wide range of reasons and could, in the short to medium term, call into question

the democratic experiment in Afghanistan that began once the extremist Taliban had been pushed from power in 2001. No election since then has been unstained, and few Afghans now profess to

have faith in the process. Even now, it is difficult to determine how much lower turnout was this year than five years ago as the corruption starts with registration. Afghans are, as usual,

split in their loyalties and sanguine about what comes next. While violence appears to have dropped during the political stalemate, the drumbeat of the war nevertheless continues, and most

Afghans just want to make a living the best they can while keeping their families safe.