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One man will decide whether Boris Johnson enjoys the dubious distinction of the shortest tenure of any Prime Minister in British history. One man controls the destiny of the Tory party,

which could splinter into pieces if it fails to deliver Brexit. One man will determine whether the 2019 election, assuming that it takes place next month, will be a greater triumph than

David Cameron’s in 2015 or a disaster worse than Theresa May’s in 2017. That man is Nigel Farage. He is a hard person to forget about, but ever since Boris Johnson moved into Downing Street

he has avoided the media limelight, lurking in the shadows and biding his time. Now he has re-emerged, like the soothsayer in Julius Caesar. “The Ides of March are come,” the great man

remarks as he passes by. “Aye, Caesar, but not gone,” his nemesis replies. The Brexit Party has so far selected 635 prospective parliamentary candidates. If they all stand, it is hard to see

how the Conservatives can conceivably win a majority. Farage knows that he can exact a price for any electoral pact with Boris. He has told the _Times_ that he will only call off his troops

if the Prime Minister abandons the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May lock, stock and barrel. It will not be enough to persuade Brussels to replace the Irish backstop with

alternative border arrangements. Only a wholly new deal, or preferably no deal at all, would be enough for Farage. What should Johnson do? He cannot promise anything on behalf of Brussels.

Nor does he wish to reveal the UK’s negotiating position at this point. If Michel Barnier knows what is the minimum that Britain will settle for, he has no incentive to offer more. Farage

has, perhaps unintentionally, exposed a weakness in the Government’s election strategy. Boris is telling the country to back him or sack him, but on Brexit he has not told us precisely what

we are supposed to back him to do. No-deal is supposed to be only his last resort. If he makes it his mantra, his whole narrative collapses. The election is being called, he says, because

the Opposition parties are “tying his hands”, thereby undermining his bid to get a better deal from the EU. But if Boris concedes to Farage that no-deal is the only Brexit we are likely to

get, then this rationale is shown to be a charade. What are the chances of the Brexit Party being squeezed in the unusually long election campaign that is now in prospect? In 2015, Ukip

achieved far less success than had been feared. Farage himself failed to win a seat, just as he has failed on six other occasions. He has yet to say which constituency he will fight for the

Brexit Party this time, but it is likely to be against a high-profile Remainer — perhaps Amber Rudd, the Work and Pensions Secretary, who held Hastings and Rye by just 346 votes in 2017.

Many Leave-voting Labour supporters hate the Tories, whom they blame for austerity, but might be tempted to vote for a single-issue party. On the other hand, in a general election (unlike

the elections for the European Parliament) the Brexit Party will struggle to make an impact on issues other than Europe. It became clear in the recent by-elections at Peterborough and Brecon

and Radnorshire that the main function of the Brexit Party is to help Labour and the Liberal Democrats to defeat the Tories. A vote for the Brexit Party is a vote against Brexit. This is

the paradoxical message that Boris Johnson will have to convey to Leave voters, in case Farage refuses an electoral pact. It is not the only paradox of this extraordinary moment in history.

If the rebel Bill to force the Prime Minister to seek an extension rather than no-deal gains a majority in the Commons today, it makes a no-deal Brexit more likely rather than less. Tory

Remainers risk bringing about the very outcome they have sacrificed their careers to prevent. Farage is still dangling the possibility that he will favour Brexiteers over Remainers in

deciding which Conservatives to oppose. But Boris Johnson has already threatened to deselect the 20 or so Tory MPs who have said that they will vote against the Government. So the Brexit

Party has largely lost its raison d’etre as a blunt instrument to transform the Conservatives. Its main purpose now is to be a vehicle for popular rage — and for one man’s ego. That man is,

as Macbeth might say, “but a walking shadow, a poor player, that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more.” This election will be his last hurrah. But Nigel Farage

is not going quietly.