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The question is whether the US might take a similarly confrontational attitude towards any foreign power that threatens to become larger than the US. It might not be an issue for the next

decade or two, as there would appear to be very few contenders other than China — India in 25-30 years, perhaps? It is something worthy of thought. I lived in New York twice, originally in

the mid- to late-80s, and then again, briefly in the mid-90’s. For much of that era, it was assumed in financial circles that Japan could overtake the US, and from 1985 and the Plaza Accord

through much of the next 10 years, there were various initiatives that DC threw at Japan, criticising their persistent trade surpluses, unfair trade practices, currency manipulation, lack of

access to Japanese financial markets, and so on. Indeed, it was very similar to much of what has happened towards Beijing in recent years. Of course, we look back and see that, due to

Japan’s demographic realities and its failure to reform its domestic economy, the underlying growth trend of the Japanese economy slowed dramatically, and the Japanese bubble burst. And of

course, it may well be that the same thing will happen now with China. It certainly has an ageing population, and as a result its underlying growth potential is in decline. But unlike Japan,

it has not yet reached developed country status, and there is presumably still lots of potential for those hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens to join those in the most advanced urban

areas of China, and reach high income status. Because of China’s ageing demographics, the inefficiencies of many of its state owned industries might encourage some US policymakers to think

that the 80’s Japan strategy might work once more. Ensuring that China never becomes as big as the US would protect the dominant role of the Dollar, would shore up US supremacy in global

institutions, and possibly, as a bonus (in the eyes of some), undermine the single party state in China. The question is, would the US ever do the same to India, perhaps in 25-30 years’ time

years? And what about a “United States of Europe”, if the EU ever undertook the steps to turn itself into such an entity?