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The Prime Minister has spent a second night in intensive care and his condition appears to have stabilised. But this is no cause for complacency. Though his temperature is reported to have

fallen and he is breathing with an oxygen mask, rather than any more invasive treatment, he is by no means out of danger. The survival rate for Covid-19 patients in critical care even

without ventilation is about 88.1 per cent, but there are risk factors in his case — age, sex and BMI — that may affect his chances adversely. Much emphasis has been laid on his personality,

which we must hope will indeed carry him through. But the intolerable stress under which he had been working even after his admission to St Thomas’s is still impeding his recovery — which,

even in the best scenario, may well take up to a fortnight. The aetiology of Covid-19 is still largely unknown and Boris Johnson is not a superman. He is likely to be out of action for some

time to come and his improvement could yet prove to be illusory. Boris still needs the nation’s prayers. Hence the Government is having to function without its head. His absence has already

led to the indefinite postponement of the three week review of the lockdown. This delay may dismay many people, but it might prove to be a blessing in disguise. Had the review gone ahead as

planned on Easter Monday, it would almost certainly have led to a continuation of the lockdown. If it takes place a week later, say on April 20, there is a better chance of a relaxation of

some restrictions. That is because the UK seems now to be approaching the peak of the pandemic. But the scientists and doctors are rightly cautious. Even if the curve is clearly flattening

by the Easter weekend, they will insist that the trend is established for at least another week before advising the politicians that some easing of the lockdown would be reasonable. The

earliest that we can reasonably hope for some lifting of the most onerous measures is early May. But the consensus seems to be that most people will still be observing social distancing, and

more vulnerable groups social isolation, until June at least. Indeed, the Government has been reluctant even to discuss any exit strategy in public. The fact that the Prime Minister is so

seriously ill, while many of his colleagues are also incapacitated or in isolation, has had a profound impact. Britain is likely to be slower to ease the lockdown than some other European

countries, with Austria, Czechia, Denmark and Norway leading the way. But some of our neighbours are moving in the opposite direction. France has recently imposed even stricter measures,

including a ban on exercise in public places. Those who complain that the British are living under “house arrest” should take a look across the Channel. Our lockdown is also less severe than

Italy’s or Spain’s. The United States, meanwhile, has just recorded the highest number of deaths for any country in a single day, exceeding 1,800 for the first time. The rest of America is

likely to be forced to follow New York in imposing strict lockdown restrictions. One alarming report from an American source in today’s _Guardian _can safely be discounted as an outlier. The

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 deaths in the UK by August, with a daily peak of 2,932 on April 17. This would make Britain the second worst

affected country in the world, after the US. But the study is flawed: it assumes that more than 1,500 a day are dying already, whereas the worst total so far has been below 800. The

mortality rate was rising sharply earlier in the pandemic, but now seems to be levelling off. For the IHME predictions to be justified, the curve would need to be much steeper right now than

it actually is. Nor does the IHME forecast that by the peak the NHS will be overwhelmed by a huge shortfall of beds, intensive care and ventilators seem to fit the facts. The Government’s

chief advisers, Sir Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty, are confident that the NHS is coping well with the rise in demand. One distinguished expert, Professor Karol Sikora, believes that we

have already reached the peak and that the figures are now on a “plateau”. He argues that if and when “Boris comes out of hospital, we can start to think about a timetable” for lifting the

lockdown. Let’s hope the professor is right — but we can’t bank on it. Is the PM out of danger? Are we at the peak? All we know is that we don’t know.   There is nothing predictable about

coronavirus, except that we are not yet out of the woods. The side effects of the lockdown — on the economy, on mental health, on domestic abuse and on education, to mention only a few —

will overshadow this country long after the pandemic is behind us. Professor Whitty mentioned yesterday its disproportionate impact on the poor and we can be sure that other indirect effects

will gradually come to light. Yet, whatever a minority of critics may claim, the response to coronavirus is not as damaging as exposing the population to the pandemic would have been. While

a return to normal life is not merely desirable but an urgent necessity, the Government cannot risk a return of the virus before vaccines become available. So a delicate balance will have

to be struck between public health and private wealth for a long time to come. We can never return to the negligent attitudes of the past, when the known unknowns, let alone the unknown

unknowns, were downplayed or disregarded by the authorities. In future, our watchword should be prophylaxis.