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Political commentators musing on the prospects of a snap election much resemble football obsessives pondering hypothetical movement in the transfer market, and the ubiquity of both hobbies

is only matched by their usual futility. The latest opinion poll or the most obscure of by-elections can spur the commentariat to proclaim irremediable doom on one party and electoral

nirvana for the other, just as the fan prophesies the downfall of a manager after one unexpected loss. And, like the trigger-happy owner, our leaders can be all too keen to indulge

themselves and head to the public on such whims, normally when searching to shake off the shackles of a coalition or to gain some Parliamentary authority with a new majority. Harold Wilson

tried this successfully in 1966; Ted Heath failed eight years later. Theresa May’s ill-fated gamble of 2017 was afterwards portrayed by all to be a mistake obvious from the beginning, though

of course it was a surprise to Jeremy Corbyn and the pollsters as much as anyone else. In all such cases, the fate of the poll lies with the might of the Opposition. And if Boris Johnson’s

premiership is to be defined on the strength of his Opposition, he will be a very lucky man indeed. Sir Keir Starmer leads a party whose situation still seems as perilous as it was for his

predecessors in 1983, when Labour had been out of government for just four years and would face another fourteen. Now it has been out of Downing Street for eleven, and faces at least another

three. Barely any in the party think it stands much chance in 2024 without a significant revolution in the political climate, which even the last year has not provided. Many in the same

tent know that Starmer will not be the person to lead them to power, and are pushing for another leadership change to hasten any chance of success. Starmer’s current weakness stems mainly

from two things he cannot do much about: that he is the leader of the Labour Party, and that he is not in government. On the former, it is the bitter legacy of the Corbyn years which derails

his attempts to not only reach out to the country but reform his own party. And there is nothing a crisis-stricken incumbent government likes more than the sight of splittism on the other

side. The spectacle of Labour infighting after the loss in Hartlepool and Starmer’s own cack-handedness in showing contrition point both to his lack of political acuity and to the length of

the electoral road ahead. Any sensible reading of the fate of the centre-Left in Britain must see the necessity of ridding the party’s leadership of its remaining far-Left legacy, unless it

wants to confine itself to such a stasis as it now has. That Starmer is no Kinnock, let alone a Blair, shows the extent of reform needed to the party’s image if it is to stand any chance.

Johnson wins as well, or at any rate Starmer loses, on the point of being in power. Having got over its plunge in popularity after the initial crisis of last year, the Johnson administration

defies all of its baffled critics in its nationwide popularity. Of course the vaccine plays its part, as does the imminent potential for the unlocking of the country into a freedom so

kindly gifted under our leader’s benison. Starmer’s studious attacks on the Government’s record provoke easy headlines, but their repetition allows the effect to wear off fast. His main

target, the Prime Minister himself, is unfortunately one of the Tories’ most potent electoral weapons; merited accusations of institutional incompetence will begin to look increasingly

hollow and recycled as the country begins to recover. Indeed, Johnson sees a post-lockdown recovery to be his greatest chance of furthering the Tories’ manifesto agenda. He may also view an

election as the greatest opportunity he has for the authority over his party not seen since the heydays of Thatcherism. Yet why take the risk? It is not as though Johnson’s majority of

around eighty is going to curtail much of his legislation any time soon. He still has much of his party in thrall with his electoral prowess, while his Brexit-delivering brio looms larger

than the claims of Dominic Cummings and others that he is by nature unfit for the office he holds. Nevertheless, Johnson may well be tempted to go to the polls early. His promised repeal of

the Fixed-term Parliament Act 2011 with the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Bill gives him the power to announce any date from next year. Internal Labour figures are scared about the

date of 2023. Largely because this gives them the shortest possible time for a rebrand, and another heavy defeat would lead them waiting for another five years under the spectre of a Johnson

government which could easily become a Sunak-led administration, extending their exile from office yet further. If Johnson were to win in 2023, he could well make Labour’s spell out of

power the longest in their history, longer even than the 19 years from 1979 to 1997. For many on the Left, it would mean half a century since the last true Labour government, under James

Callaghan. Hard experience would teach us not to predict anything with Boris Johnson, so his assurances, and those of his Cabinet ministers, that no plans are afoot for such a poll should be

treated with the usual heaped spoonfuls of salt. The divide in the Tory vote between the more conservative north and the liberal south will only grow if “levelling up” remains the flagship

policy. But Johnson will know he can rely on the remarkable skills of the Liberal Democrats and the Greens to split the Opposition vote and ensure that he keeps his southern majority of

seats intact. Johnson and Starmer will be looking very closely at the results of two by-elections this summer: in Batley and Spen, West Yorkshire, and then in Chesham and Amersham, in the

heart of the Home Counties. In the former, to see whether the Tories’ supposed conquering of the Red Wall will continue, and in the latter to see how far southern liberal Tories are prepared

to send a message of rebuke to a party who used to be able to count on their vote as Labour did in Redcar or Hartlepool. Both will give leaders the best indication they can have so far for

the mood of an exhausted country, whose desire for a future of freedom ahead may well dispel all bitter memories of a Government that took so long giving it back to us. As Boris Johnson

looks across to his flailing opposite number, he will be greatly tempted to bet on the consolidation of his power for another full term. Once again, centre-Left liberals, given a popular

populist Prime Minister and their own doleful leadership, may have to face their greatest fear: the ballot box. A MESSAGE FROM THEARTICLE _We are the only publication that’s committed to

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