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On Friday two fascinating articles appeared. First, Daniel Johnson wrote a very thoughtful piece for The Article about the rising number of Oxbridge places going to a small handful of east

London state schools. Newham, he writes, “has three outstanding state schools, many of whose students will this year go to study at Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard, Princeton and other top

universities on both sides of the Atlantic.” His article explores the implications of this sentence.  On the same day, Fraser Nelson, editor of _The Spectator_, wrote a piece on “how well

state grammars and sixth-form colleges now compete with Britain’s finest independent schools. Over the years, both universities have roughly doubled the proportion of pupils from state

schools: it now stands at 60 per cent, up from 50 per cent in 2000.”  When two leading editors like Daniel Johnson and Fraser Nelson agree on something as important as the rise of state

schools then it’s time to pay attention, even if you disagree, perhaps especially if you disagree.  Why disagree? Facts are facts and both Johnson and Nelson follow the data. For example,

Johnson writes, “No fewer than 55 pupils at Brampton Manor Academy [in Newham] gained places at Oxbridge, compared to 48 at Eton. The London School of Excellence had 37 Oxbridge offers,

while Newham Collegiate says 95 per cent of its students go on to study at Russell Group universities, while 8 students had offers from Ivy League universities.” And Nelson draws on a league

table of the top hundred schools for Oxbridge admissions and writes, “Of the 100 schools below, 48 are independent, 23 are grammar, 19 are sixth-form colleges, 7 are comprehensives or

academies and 3 are further education colleges.” He could also have added that nine of the top twenty are state schools.  Obviously, I can’t argue with the facts, but do they raise different

questions? First, Nelson’s league table. More interesting than the distinction between state and independent is the extraordinary divide between schools (state and private) in the

south-east and those elsewhere in the country. 37 out of the top 40 schools for Oxbridge admissions are in London and the south-east. The other three are Greenhead College in Huddersfield

(9th), Manchester Grammar School (20th) and Runshaw College in Lancashire (38th). No sign of the Schools of King Edward VI in Birmingham, Alan Bennett’s alma mater, Leeds Grammar, Bootham in

York or Withington Girls’ School in Manchester. Suddenly, there is a huge educational gap between London and the south-east of England and the rest of the country. Secondly, both Johnson

and Nelson rely on A-Levels and Oxbridge admissions. After all, there is no other data. But after years of grade inflation at GCSE and A-Level how reliable are these figures? And as Oxbridge

colleges look to recruit more students from state schools, especially BAME pupils in deprived areas, how much can we rely on Oxbridge admissions as signs of the improvement of state

schools? Or do they tell us more about the fast-changing political culture of Oxbridge colleges?   Third, the move to American colleges. On the website of St Paul’s School (5th in Nelson’s

league table) it says, “Of those that choose to study in the UK, the largest proportion go on to Oxford and Cambridge – an average of 31.5 per cent over the last five years.  In 2020, 126

pupils gained places at other Russell Group universities…” But perhaps the most interesting figure comes further down the page: “23 pupils are heading to top North American universities…”

Elsewhere, it lists the US universities where boys from St Paul’s have been accepted. They include Brown, University of Chicago, Columbia, Harvard, MIT, NYU, Princeton, Stanford, UC

Berkeley, UCLA and Yale. The website doesn’t spell this out, but these are the elite, the very best American universities.  Forty years ago, this would have been unthinkable. Except for a

few American pupils no one from a top British school would have chosen Harvard or Yale over Oxbridge or Imperial. What’s going on? First, the top independent schools attract more pupils from

families around the world and they find American colleges more attractive, a better passport to international careers than even the best British universities. But there’s something else. As

Oxbridge and other top universities look for a more socially diverse intake, families who have chosen independent schools will look to America where admissions will welcome their children.

These are early days. At the moment 59 boys go from St Paul’s to Oxbridge and 23 to American colleges. Westminster has just sent 71 pupils to Oxbridge and 21 to the best American colleges.

How long will it be till these figures are reversed? In ten years or twenty years? A bit longer? And then what happens to Oxbridge colleges when many of the best applicants will be looking

elsewhere?  You may say, who cares? Won’t it be better to see more applicants from deprived areas like Newham taking up places at Oxbridge and the top Russell Group universities? There

always were too many not very bright sixth-formers from second-rate independent schools and huge, disproportionate numbers from the top private schools, and the odds for less advantaged

children were terrible. I took my GCE’s in a small comprehensive school in Suffolk. From my year, two pupils went to Oxbridge. Wouldn’t it be better if they had an improved chance of getting

to the best universities?  The answer is that it might be more complicated. My guess is that my old school in Suffolk has very few children of deprived or ethnic backgrounds and that

admissions tutors prefer smart kids from ethnic backgrounds in Newham and from state schools with very privileged social intakes in Cambridge and Winchester to white sixth-formers from a

small rural school who are neither deprived, nor BAME, nor from schools in the south-east with children from privileged backgrounds. They fall in between. The grandchildren of my friends

from Sudbury will face challenges as severe as my contemporaries did.  In the meantime, pupils from the top independent schools will head across the Atlantic in growing numbers. I wonder

whom this will benefit and what it has to do with talent and merit?   A MESSAGE FROM THEARTICLE _We are the only publication that’s committed to covering every angle. We have an important

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