
Sunak’s diplomatic brexit | thearticle
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We knew we were going to get something yesterday. We sort of knew it would be about opening up free trade between the British mainland and Northern Ireland through green routes and red
routes. We thought it was going to be all very technocratic. But we also knew red and green routes would not be enough for the DUP and, therefore, not enough for a return to Stormont power
sharing. More importantly for Sunak’s future, it would not be enough for the ERG and would lead to yet another existential power struggle in the Tory Party, with Sunak’s back acting as a
great big bullseye for hatchets all over Westminster. What Sunak gave us yesterday was something with Blairesque proportions of political marketing and branding. We were presented with the
“Windsor Framework” (please note, framework, not treaty — although it’s provisions will have the force of international law) with its key mechanism, the “Stormont Brake”. Two two-word titles
for journalists and newscasters to pop into headlines ad nauseam. Two phrases that boil down months of negotiation, horse trading and thousands of words in diplomatic language. Lord
Mandelson would be proud. What Sunak has come up with was also rather novel in the history of Brexit – it is clever. The Stormont Brake gives the DUP a red box with glass to break in case of
emergency. However, to get access to the crisis lever, the DUP has to be in Stormont doing all that “power sharing” and “governing” they hate. The Stormont Brake takes away the DUP’s
favoured political tactic: storming out in a tantrum saying they don’t want to play any more. The Stormont Brake is also shrewd because no figure in Westminster, Stormont or Dublin will want
to be held responsible for applying the brake and the constitutional breakdown that will follow. Therefore, the mechanism designed to keep the DUP satisfied that Northern Ireland will
always stay on the UK side of any divergence, is the very mechanism to ensure there is as little divergence as possible. The Stormont Brake tethers the UK to the EU, and the EU to us. The
British have, at last managed to get the EU to share some jeopardy in post-Brexit relations, which, despite what your divorce lawyer might tell you, is the basis for any successful, trusting
and happy relationship. To get this treaty, Sunak has also used that traditional British weapon called diplomacy. First, the unveiling of the treaty was on a set lent by King Charles III in
Windsor. This was the British State on full schmooze mode. It was something pushed to the bottom of the diplomatic tool kit when dealing with Brexit under previous PMs, but it turns out to
be pretty useful. So effective, in fact, it had Nigel Farage straight on Twitter with one of his selfie-videos frothing at the mouth and saying what a disgrace it all was. Second, Sunak
managed to pull together a coalition before this framework was announced. When _The Observer _revealed earlier this month there was a secret Brexit conference at Ditchley Park in
Oxfordshire, you could hear gears grinding into action. Ditchley comprised of Brexiteers, including Michael Gove and Michael Howard, Remainers such as Lord Mandelson and David Lammy, and
with representatives of the business community to give the conference a conspiratorial flavour. Sunak went into the Commons last night positive that his plan would clear Parliament with the
support of Labour votes. Sunak made sure there would be no soap opera of the May and Johnson years. No Mother of Parliaments ripping itself to bits in front of an agog global audience. No
getting bullied by the DUP or ERG. No tail wagging dog. Third, Sunak has actually tried to build a useful relationship with the European Commission. You could see this yesterday with the way
Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, was so relaxed in the company of Sunak (“dear Rishi”) and the King, talking of the “very constructive attitude” the UK had
towards talks. There was none of the sabre rattling, private briefing and leaks of the previous six years. The fact that we did not know what was going to happen yesterday, until it was
announced, is testament to the success of the talks. This framework will not bring to an end all the issues Brexit has heaped on the UK. But it is a start. For example, von der Leyen stated
yesterday that talks will start immediately for the UK to enter Horizon, the EU’s key funding programme for research and innovation. Expect more of this over the coming months and years:
frameworks resetting the UK’s relationship with the EU on everything from agriculture through to high finance. The Windsor Framework isn’t going to save Sunak in May’s local elections. This
treaty in all but name still might be savaged by the sharks of the DUP and ERG. Some people, especially on the Right, won’t like it. But this Framework is the only way that Brexit will work.
It is, in fact, Brexit, but done diplomatically. A MESSAGE FROM THEARTICLE _We are the only publication that’s committed to covering every angle. We have an important contribution to make,
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