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The political consequences of the coronavirus pandemic are now becoming clearer. There are winners and losers, both domestically and internationally. In many ways, this crisis resembles a

global war; like the Napoleonic Wars and the two World Wars, it will leave an enduring political, ideological and economic legacy. The fallout is already upon us. Even more than his Budget

last week, Rishi Sunak’s bailout marks a dramatic shift towards big government. That was inevitable: the impending collapse of the hospitality industry alone could have cost 3.2 million

jobs, plus another 2.8 million in supply chains. The Chancellor had no choice but to act fast and his £350 billion rescue plan, vast as it is, was no more than the minimum to stave off a

full-scale depression. France and Germany have both announced even larger bailouts, while the United States has a package twice as big — though smaller than the European ones in proportion

to the US economy. All these measures are provisional, inevitably so given the protean nature of the global crisis. What immediately strikes one, however, is that these bailouts do not

resemble those following the 2008 crash at all. They are not aimed at shoring up the banks, which in most countries are in robust shape. (Italy is the exception.) This is straightforward

Keynesian demand management, plus supply side tax cuts, subsidies and soft loans. In the short to medium term, such measures will probably achieve their aims: the world economy won’t go into

free-fall and unemployment will only rise modestly from a low base. But we should be under no illusions about the long-term distortions that this reversion to a mid-20th century economic

panacea implies. Big government means waste and bureaucracy on a colossal scale. The spectre of inflation will also reappear. All this means that socialism, which had consigned itself to the

dustbin of history in all but a handful of very poor countries, will very likely make a comeback in the West, bringing with it the class conflict and the fallacies that accompany centrally

planned economies. Among the winners on the international stage is China, which is responsible for inflicting Covid-19 on the world. The Communist Party has imposed severe restrictions on

its population, but the Chinese elites have scarcely suffered at all: the stock markets there have barely registered the pandemic. If at the end of the crisis China should emerge relatively

stronger and the West relatively weaker, there will be demands for a reckoning; indeed there is already talk of reparations, especially in the US. Needless to say, Beijing is assiduously

pumping out disinformation about the virus to muddy the waters. One long overdue consequence of this blame game might be a recognition in the West that China has never played its part in

mitigating climate change or, indeed, in any other altruistic global initiatives. Yet our dependency on Chinese trade has become so great that we have turned a blind eye to the refusal by

Beijing to abide by international law or human rights. If Xi Jinping’s criminal cover-up of coronavirus, at a time when it might still have been contained, does not cause the scales to fall

from our eyes, what will? Yet prominent dissidents in China, such as the property tycoon Ren Zhiqiang, have disappeared as a punishment for blaming Xi for the pandemic — without a squeak of

protest from the West. A huge propaganda campaign is now under way to present Xi as the hero of the seemingly successful attempt to contain and suppress the outbreak. Unfortunately, history

suggests that such propaganda, reinforced by social media, also influences Western perceptions of totalitarian states and their leaders. Here in the West, the big losers of the pandemic are

the international bodies that have proved unequal to the task of coordination. The EU has now closed its borders, more or less at the behest of President Macron, who is seizing the day to

become Europe’s undisputed leader. Charles De Gaulle, his avowed role model, was never as dominant in the Europe of the Six as Emmanuel Macron is in the Europe of the 27. Brussels is

deferring to Paris, while Angela Merkel is too preoccupied with internal politics to challenge Macron. She is also weary of the job she has held for some 15 years, with no successor yet in

sight. Geriatric Germany clings to a matriarch who, though by no means old herself (she is just 65), seems to have run out of energy and ideas. Europe, which has been drifting to the

extremes of Left and Right for years, now looks to the dynamic — if dictatorial — President in Paris rather than the chastened Chancellor in Berlin. Britain is unlikely to follow any lurch

to the Left as a result of the big government response to Covid-19. Yet Boris Johnson is nothing if not pragmatic; he has had no hesitation in wrapping himself in the mantle of Churchill.

“We must act like any wartime government,” he declared yesterday. But as a biographer of Churchill, he will recall that the failure to develop a postwar strategy brought Britain’s greatest

leader down to defeat as soon as the danger had passed. Boris won’t make that mistake: no doubt Dominic Cummings is already working on post-viral planning. Cummings, incidentally, is no more

of a “misfit” than some of Churchill’s wartime advisers, such as Frederick “the Prof” Lindemann (later Lord Cherwell). The main difference is that the Prof was a first-class physicist,

while Cummings is a policy wonk who has run a number of successful campaigns. It will gradually become clear whether, after initial wobbles, Government scientists are working harmoniously

with Cummings and the Downing Street machine. Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Adviser, seems to have established himself as the dominant voice on coronavirus inside No 10. We are

now entering the most dangerous phase of the pandemic. Inevitably people are very frightened and some are desperate about their own circumstances. Almost the most important function of

leadership in this predicament is to preserve calm and to reassure the country that whatever happens, Her Majesty’s Government will be carried on. Boris Johnson doesn’t have long to grow

into the role that fate has thrust upon him. When destiny comes knocking, it won’t take no for an answer.