The new eu lineup is a victory for federalism — but not for europe | thearticle

The new eu lineup is a victory for federalism — but not for europe | thearticle


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Just in time for the endgame on Brexit, the European Union has got its act together. Ursula von der Leyen, the German Defence Minister, will replace Jean-Claude Juncker as President of the


Commission. Charles Michel, the Belgian Prime Minister, will replace Donald Tusk as President of the Council. And Christine Lagarde returns from the IMF to become President of the European


Central Bank. What does this changing of the guard mean? First, all three are devout federalists. So are the three new vice-presidents: the Spaniard Josep Borrell, the Dutchman Frans


Timmermans and the Dane Margrethe Vestager. The same goes for the head of the EU’s civil service, the German Martin Selmayr, and the President of the Eurogroup, Portugal’s Mário Centeno. All


the EU’s senior figures are now from Western Europe, apart from the proposed new President of the European Parliament, the Bulgarian Sergei Stanishev, who has yet to be elected by MEPs. 


Second, it is no coincidence that Central and Southern Europe, where nationalism is on the rise, have been shut out of the EU’s ruling elite. Yet this latest stitch-up by the Franco-German


“engine” of ever-closer union will only exacerbate the sense of alienation from the European project that has driven the rise of Euroscepticism. Italy, one of the founding members, is now


disillusioned with the failure to get a grip on either the ongoing migration crisis or the structural failures of the eurozone. The European project was launched 62 years ago with the Treaty


of Rome, but the eternal city is now remote, both politically and culturally, from the centres of power. The same hostility to European federalism permeates such grand old capitals as


Prague, Vienna, Warsaw and Budapest. The new cadres of Eurocrats in Brussels ignore the Continental periphery at their peril. Finally, who are the EU’s new big three and how are they likely


to deal with the formidable challenges they will face? Ms von der Leyen is undoubtedly impressive: after a successful career as a doctor, she has been responsible for Germany’s armed forces


for six years — the first woman to do so. She has somehow also found time to bring up seven children in a country where large families are rare. From the Merkel school of tough-minded but


non-ideological feminism, she will be the first woman to lead the Commission. The patriarchal culture in Brussels was reflected in Donald Tusk’s condescending comment: “After all, Europe is


a woman.” Yet Ms von der Leyen is also an archetypal member of the European establishment. Brought up in Brussels to be bilingual in German and French, she is the daughter of Ernst Albrecht,


a leading Christian Democrat who started as an EU official. She married an aristocratic academic-turned-industrialist.  Her policies reflect her background. She is best known as the leading


advocate of a European army and she has repeatedly defended the long-term goal of a United States of Europe. By the same token, she is a staunch opponent of British attempts to preserve


Nato as the basis of defence in Europe. On Brexit, she is adamant that the Irish backstop must stay and the single market must remain immaculate. The lack of chemistry between Juncker and


Theresa May is likely to be repeated if Ms von der Leyen is confronted by Boris Johnson.  The same applies to Charles Michel, whose ideas are close to Emmanuel Macron’s. On Brexit the


balding, bearded Belgian is certain to echo his French patron, who has warned his fellow heads of government: “We must not fear No Deal. If you fear No Deal you are the hostage.” 


Anglophobic attitudes are now _de rigueur_, as the EU tries to present a united front against the expected ascendancy of the Brexiteers in London. European elites tend to assimilate the


British and American administrations, despite the fact that on most foreign policy issues the UK is still closer to Paris and Berlin than to Washington. The exclusion of the Brits from more


European institutions in the event of a “disorderly” Brexit could, however, turn the negativity of Brussels towards _les Anglo-Saxons_ into a self-fulfilling prophecy. The most problematic


of the new EU appointees, however, may prove to be Ms Lagarde. It is not merely the EU’s cavalier disregard of her conviction for negligence in the Bernard Tapie corruption case, when she


was French Finance Minister, that feeds suspicion. It is, rather, that Ms Lagarde will be a far more political head of the Central Bank than her predecessor, Mario Draghi, who is an


economist and banker. Ms Lagarde is likely to come under pressure from Macron to pursue a looser monetary policy, while the Germans will insist that she stick to the rules, as Draghi did.


The ECB will therefore again become a political battleground, sapping confidence in the EU’s financial architecture. We should stand by for a new euro crisis. Like the Bourbons, the


Eurocrats have learned nothing and forgotten nothing. The new lineup in Brussels is a victory for the EU elites, but not for Europe.