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Azerbaijan and Armenia are at war — it was only four years ago that an estimated 200 people were killed in a conflict over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region. This area lies within

Azerbaijan, but is claimed by Armenia in a dispute that has gone on for over 100 years. The modern conflict results from decisions made by Stalin during the Sovietisation of the area. It is

a conflict with a long history and one that could trigger a far greater, far more deadly conflict. Armenia is allied with Russia and Iran. Azerbaijan is allied with Israel and Turkey. How

did the situation become so dangerous? When the Ottoman Empire fell at the end of the First World War, the Karabakh region came under British occupation. The British appointed an Azerbaijani

governor for Karabakh, despite the 1823 census recording the region to be 90.8 per cent Armenian. The decision was opposed by the Armenian majority, spurring guerrilla warfare. Then in the

1920s, after a brief period of Bolshevik rule, the Karabakh region became once more a political pawn, a bartering tool for Russia, which put the region again under Azerbaijain’s

jurisdiction, this time to curry favour with Turkey. If it hadn’t been for this Turkish pressure, Russia would have granted Armenia control and today Russia stands on the side of Armenia in

the dispute. It wasn’t until the fall of the Soviet Union and the ensuing power vacuum that the age long territorial dispute rose up once more. That disagreement turned to fighting and the

war over Nagorno-Karabakh ran from 1988-94 during which, both the Armenian and Azerbaijani military employed a large number of mercenaries from Ukraine and Russia. As many as one thousand 

Afghan mujahideen also participated in the fighting on Azerbaijan’s side. By May 1994, the Armenians had made substantial headway into Azerbaijan. At around this time, the 1992 genocide of

Bosnians in Srebenica took place. Over 8,000 were killed in that one massacre alone. In 1994 Nato intervened, bombing the former Yugoslavia — but in the midst of all this, Armenia and

Azerbaijan’s conflict was overshadowed. From 2005 to 2016 the international community passed resolution after resolution condemning what began to describe as the “ethnic cleansing” of

Azerbaijanis by Armenia. Then in 2016, Azerbaijani forces penetrated Armenian positions at three locations along the approximately 200-kilometre frontline. For Armenians, this line was a

defensive perimeter, a border for its unrecognised, self-proclaimed state. For Azerbaijanis, it was a demarkation line, put there by occupying forces and a violation of international law.

After four days of fighting, a ceasfire was brokered by Russia. But once more the world’s gaze was elsewhere, as violence in Syria was raging and the Islamic State was reaching its peak.

Then came the referendum on Brexit and the election of President Donald Trump. Once more, Armenia and Azerbaijan’s conflict sank into the background of global events. The conflict has again

made its way into the headlines, but with a global pandemic reaching now over a million deaths, and a US president now also infected by the virus, maybe not for long. With such key global

players backing both Armenia and in Azerbaijan and with Iran and Israel finding yet another satellite state in which to play out their conflict, tensions are running high. Though it may have

been overshadowed time and again, the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh remains extremely dangerous. There are estimates of over 100 deaths so far, and reports that Turkey has shot down an

Armenian military plane. We can but hope that Russia can negotiate a peace like it did four years ago, but a brokered peace does not solve what will be an on-going conflict and should be a

very present concern for security strategists. It may be that this time, the long-running dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan will not be obscured by other events — that it will take on a

new and unnerving significance.