Us election notebook: welcome to the end | thearticle

Us election notebook: welcome to the end | thearticle


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“Chaos”:_ a state of complete disorder and confusion_ Well, it was only fitting that this most chaotic of elections should conclude with the President of the United States calling it “a


fraud on the American people”. While many results have been declared, there are still many uncounted ballots and unconfirmed results in half a dozen key states. There’s a reason the US


electoral system has been compared to Dungeons and Dragons. And perhaps it was always going to end this way. After all, the last four years have seen the largest single-day protest and


longest government shutdown in US history and only the third president ever to be impeached. As of this year, the 45th President has lied at least 20,000 times — and tweeted even more. The


2020 election itself has been one of the most remarkable in US history. It featured the worst pandemic in over a century and was the most violent election year since 1968. The first


presidential debate was described as a “sh*tshow” and the president himself was hospitalised. Technical glitches and allegations of fraud plagued the voting process and the National Guard


was summoned just so that citizens could vote in peace. But, while short on quality, it certainly didn’t lack quantity. This was the most expensive presidential campaign in US history and


the most bet-on event in all history. It saw the highest turnout in a century and featured both the most unpopular presidential candidate ever (Trump) and the oldest (Biden). During this


election, Jimmy Carter become the longest-lived president, the grandson of the 10th President, John Tyler, passed away, and the youngest ever member of Congress was elected. And as for its


result, it could still prove to be a narrow contest, a Blue Tsunami or a Red Wave. Donald Trump has retained the key state of Florida (that’s $100 million Michael Bloomberg won’t be getting


back), giving him his only fighting shot of re-election. He has also won projections of victory in the key swing states of Ohio and North Carolina and managed to fend off the Democrats’


stronger than usual showings in Texas and Iowa. However, he is behind in Arizona, a state he won in 2016, might lose Georgia, a state which no Democrat has won since Bill Clinton, and


remains neck and neck with Joe Biden in the all-important Midwest. With neither candidate having passed the 270 mark, all eyes are now on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which we won’t


know the final results of for hours, if not days. Although Biden is currently behind in two of these states, the good news for him is that his numbers there will improve due to the late


counting of early ballots there, as they have in Wisconsin. But don’t forget: Trump has won the bellwether states of Florida and Ohio, which have routinely voted for the winning candidates


for decades. Whatever the final result, there are some things that seem clear. The first is that, once again, the polls have been wrong. The vast majority of pollsters predicted a Biden


victory of 300-400 electoral college votes, which hasn’t happened. Whether that’s down to polling oversights, as in 2016, or the general phenomenon of the “Shy Trump” voter remains to be


seen. Either way, there is a large disconnect. Secondly, this election has both confirmed past trends and revealed some potentially new demographic and political realignments. Across the


nation, the Democrats solidified their strength in urban and suburban areas and the Republicans in rural areas. The final electoral map will reveal, as in 2016, two Americas. But Biden has


clearly won back some blue-collar voters in the Midwest and the Democrats’ strong showing in Georgia, Texas and Arizona demonstrates that they have made inroads into the Sunbelt. As for the


Republicans, exit polls show that they look set to do better with African American and Hispanic voters this time, something which helped Trump hold onto the all-important state of Florida.


Of course, with this being such a close-fought election, there is a good chance that it will be contested or end in a tie — hundreds of lawsuits have already been filed and protests erupted


in the nation’s capital last night. If that wasn’t enough, it could be complicated by so-called “faithless electors”: members of the Electoral College who do not vote according to the will


of their state. Seven members successfully did so in 2016, the highest number since 1912. So, in the words of Joe Biden: this “ain’t over”. A MESSAGE FROM THEARTICLE _We are the only


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