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What could go wrong for Boris Johnson over the next five years? Last week this leader column suggested five lessons in politics that help to define Johnsonism. Today, we will reflect on five

pitfalls that could derail the Prime Minister and his project to reform the UK in the post-Brexit era. These are, remember, only possibilities, not predictions. * The trade negotiations

with the EU could prove to be more difficult than expected. In the worst-case scenario, Boris the eternal optimist might have to choose either eating his cake or having it, but not both.

Britain would have to decide whether it was more important to hang onto something close to its present lion’s share of financial services in the EU, or settle for a more peripheral role in

Europe in order to seize global opportunities. It should never come to such an Either/Or, which is not in the interests of the 27 member states, but some voices in Brussels are still urging

a tough line. Fortunately, there are signs that a more pragmatic approach is prevailing in Berlin. Angela Merkel sees Britain as a competitor, but she does not want a trade war in the style

of Donald Trump. Britain will continue to be Europe’s main banker and broker. * The economy could fail to revive, as Boris Johnson predicted it would throughout the election campaign. It is

true that the economic forecasts are mostly still for rather modest growth this year. However, such pessimistic predictions are often mistaken because they leave out a key factor: what John

Maynard Keynes in his _General Theory _called “animal spirits”. By this he meant the risk-taking, entrepreneurial aspect of human nature: “a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction”.

Boris Johnson is himself a powerful example of animal spirits, and his presence at the helm is already proving conducive to their reassertion. By the second quarter of this year, we should

begin to see signs of an economic resurgence. * Events, especially global crises, can always cause the best-laid plans to go awry. So far this year we have already witnessed the spectacle of

military confrontation between Iran and the United States, for example. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has vowed vengeance for the death of his chief executioner, General Qasem

Soleimani. Wiser counsels now seem to have prevailed in Tehran; still, war is never far away in the Middle East. Yet it is noticeable that the hike in oil prices that invariably accompanies

such crises has made little impact this time. The West is incomparably more resilient than it was forty or fifty years ago, when a rise in oil prices could trigger a global recession. The UK

is the trading nation _par excellence, _but even we are able to absorb shocks on the scale of the Iran crisis without being derailed. * The Labour Party could turn itself into an effective

Opposition and threaten the Prime Minister’s present domination of British politics. This is perhaps the least likely of the scenarios that might keep a less buoyant character than Boris

awake at night. None of the five Labour leadership candidates looks capable of matching him. Keir Starmer, the bookies’ favourite, is probably less Left-wing than the others and, as a former

Director of Public Prosecutions, possesses forensic skills that Jeremy Corbyn obviously lacks. Yet he was the DPP who oversaw Operation Yewtree, one of the worst stains on the reputation of

the Metropolitan Police. As Shadow Brexit Secretary, he has conspicuously failed to stop Boris Johnson driving through his policy. Not only does Starmer lack charisma, but as a London

lawyer he hardly looks like the right person to make new friends in the North and recapture Labour’s lost bastions there. And when the report on Labour’s anti-Semitism by the Equality and

Human Rights Commission lands, how will Starmer evade the charge that he was a prominent member of the Shadow Cabinet while this miasma invaded the party? * Politics is always personal, and

never more so than in the case of Boris Johnson. Here is the first divorced Prime Minister since Sir Anthony Eden and the first ever to be living in Number Ten with a woman to whom he is not

married. What if his relationship with Carrie Symonds were to prove as impermanent as other liaisons and even marriages in the past? Could his premiership founder in a welter of scandal?

This disaster scenario can never be entirely ruled out. But there are strong grounds for dismissing it as no more likely to destroy this Prime Minister than any other. His private life came

under intense scrutiny during the Conservative leadership contest. He and Carrie Symonds had a very public row at that time. Yet the relationship survived that test and seems to have

flourished since. She has found a public role as an advocate for animal welfare and wildlife protection. Once his divorce is finalised, they may decide to marry — the first time that would

have happened to an incumbent of Downing Street in modern history. (The last was the Duke of Grafton, who held office from 1768-70.) The fact that Johnson’s personal affairs are admittedly

messy does not seem to have damaged him in the eyes of the electorate, which has just given him a thumping majority. A prime ministerial wedding to a young woman with ideas that resonate

with her generation would surely make Boris Johnson more popular than ever.