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Do you remember the early days of the pandemic, when the nation watched nervously to see who would deliver the daily press conferences? Whether it was Boris Johnson (before he was spirited

away for weeks to an intensive care unit), Matt Hancock (who also had a bout of Covid-19), Chris Whitty (ditto), Sir Patrick Vallance or the rest of the cast of ministers, medics and

scientists, one leitmotif sounded throughout: we must flatten the curve to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed. And we succeeded. It has cost more than 45,000 lives, but the curve was

flattened. Some £50 billion was spent, but the NHS never did run out of beds, ICUs or ventilators. We should not take this achievement for granted. Across the Atlantic, where Covid-19 cases

in the US are rising at a rate of 60,000 a day, hospitals in Florida are already at capacity, while Texas, Arizona and California are approaching it. The coronavirus curve has passed three

million cases and is still rising. Back here, all eyes are on Rishi Sunak after his summer statement. He too is trying to flatten the curve. In his case, it is the unemployment curve that

matters. All his measures are now directed towards preventing a spike as the furlough scheme winds down this autumn and employers decide whether they can afford to keep their staff on. We

are losing jobs at a rate of tens of thousands a week and in all likelihood many hundreds of thousands more will have been sacked before Christmas. Estimates of the jobless total in 2021

vary wildly, but it is quite possible that the record low levels of well below 4 per cent in 2019 will have tripled by this time next year. We are looking at totals in excess of three

million — levels not seen since the 1980s.   No wonder the Chancellor is slashing VAT to stimulate the hospitality sector, cutting stamp duty to revive the property market, paying families

to insulate their homes, subsidising employers to take on apprentices and trainees, or indeed to keep on employees now on furlough. Unless Sunak can flatten the unemployment curve, the

economy could well be overwhelmed. When millions lose their jobs in short order, a vicious cycle kicks in. Tax revenues plummet at the same time as public spending takes off. Borrowing

becomes more expensive and bankruptcies accelerate. Yet more jobs are lost. The Chancellor acknowledges that this week’s package, worth £30 billion, will not be enough. The autumn Budget

will certainly contain even more drastic medicine to keep the ailing parts of the economy on life support. Growth is returning, but for hundreds of firms it won’t be in time. As with the

battle to contain coronavirus, it may be a close-run thing. The optimism of Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, that we are already well into a V-shaped recovery does not

mean that millions of jobs are not still at risk. Even if the jobless curve can be flattened this year, there may be second or third waves of unemployment in the next. There is another curve

that must be worrying Rishi Sunak: the rising level of Government debt. Fiscal support during the first phase of the crisis has already cost a cool £160 billion, according to the Treasury,

and plans already announced will push total Government borrowing to at least £350 billion. The spectre of inflation looms ominously. It looks likely that the first half of this decade will

be spent recovering from the impact of the pandemic. Yet the British and indeed the global economy may surprise us yet. Despite  various crises, the last decade saw the greatest increase in

wealth in history. Just now, the 2020s are looking rather less like the Roaring Twenties than many people hoped. Still, we should remember that when the 1920s began, Europe was recovering

from both a world war and a flu pandemic. Covid-19 has by no means run its course yet, but so far it has killed only about one per cent of the death toll in the 1918-20 pandemic. The

economic boom that left its mark in the culture of the Jazz Age came at a time when Europe was periodically convulsed by civil war and revolution, strikes and hyperinflation. Rishi Sunak was

therefore justified in flashing that broad grin as he tucked into his restaurant dinner — and not just because he’s enviably slim. The Chancellor promises that the public purse will pick up

half the bill for meals out next month. With any luck, his confidence will prove infectious and carry us through this crisis — if only we can flatten the unemployment curve, just as we did

the coronavirus one. Dr Jenny Harries, the Deputy Chief Medical Officer, says there is “still quite a long haul” before we see the back of Covid-19 and warns us to lose weight now in

anticipation of a second wave in the winter. Yet Rishi Sunak urges us to eat, drink and be merry. Can we flatten our stomachs at the same time as keeping pubs and restaurants in business, to

flatten the unemployment curve? It is possible to do both — perhaps. Hope springs eternal.