Reader TTS

Trust is the most valuable commodity in politics. When the Lib Dems threw away trust by breaking their manifesto pledge on tuition fees, Nick Clegg consigned them to near oblivion. Nine

years later, despite disarray in both main parties, they still languish at single figure support in the polls. This week the Conservative Party faces its ‘tuition fees moment’. It was

elected on clear manifesto pledges to leave the Customs Union and Single Market and accept No Deal rather than a bad deal. Yet Theresa May’s deal locks us into a Customs Union subject to

Single Market laws and throws away the key. It is so bad that even she voted against it unless the Irish Protocol was replaced. Yet she is now trying to get it through Parliament by

reversing her former pledge and arguing that a bad deal is better than no deal. No deal – leaving on WTO terms – has been demonised by the same elites who unsuccessfully tried to frighten

people into voting remain – the BBC, CBI, Bank of England, and Remain majority within Parliament and the government. They seem to be equally unsuccessful in convincing the public for whom

‘no deal’ is now the favoured option with 44% support. But plenty of parliamentarians have come to believe their own rhetoric on the subject. Before any preparations had been made or

announced – they had understandable fears that planes would not fly, lorries would have no licences, the ports would be congested. Now those specific fears have given way to a lexicon of

lurid epithets about impending chaos, calamity, catastrophe. Fears of trading on WTO terms are surprising since that is how we trade, very successfully, with our largest national market –

the USA – with whom we have a surplus unlike our massive deficit with the EU27. And our exports to countries with which we trade on WTO terms have risen by 72% whereas those to the EU single

market have risen by a disappointing 18% since it was set up. Most of the original specific fears of leaving without a withdrawal agreement have been resolved by a series of reciprocal

deals and pragmatic arrangements with the EU. It is therefore a misnomer to talk of a ‘no deal Brexit’. For example, the EU offered to allow our planes to fly over, land in and return from

the EU if we reciprocated – deal done. Hauliers will receive licences, the EU supported UK membership of the Common Travel Convention and is working with us to obtain permits covering all 48

countries of the CEMT in future. Deal done. Euratom, once considered such a difficult problem that even some Euro-sceptics thought we should remain in it, has pronounced all issues solved.

Deals done. Fears that the energy interconnectors in Ireland would not work have been dealt with by the Irish government. That’s done. Car type certificates have been renewed by Swedish

certification body. Flight agreements with 17 countries which had been negotiated via the EU– virtually all done and 111 bilateral agreements simply continue unchanged. More has been

achieved in negotiating Free Trade Agreements between the EU and third countries than is generally recognised. Switzerland alone accounts for 27% of UK exports under these FTAs and together

with others already announced and Canada which is apparently imminent they cover nearly 50% of our exports under these agreements. For many others, trade will likely continue on the present

basis with an exchange of letters pending a new agreement. Most of the scare stories about leaving with no Agreement assume there will be severe congestion at Dover/Calais. It has barely

been reported that HMRC say they will carry out no more physical checks at the port than at present. And their new Transitional Simplified Procedures will help traders unfamiliar with

customs procedures pass through without delay. The French too are determined to ensure smooth flow of vehicles for fear of losing trade to Belgian and Dutch ports. This document  spells out

(in English) France’s impressive plans for 29 th March. If the EU and UK agree, we can continue to trade with zero tariffs and quotas even if Britain leaves without a Withdrawal Agreement.

If the EU refuse, our exporters will face the EU’s external tariff averaging 4%. That is small beer compared to the 15% exchange rate depreciation since 2016. In aggregate those tariffs

amount to £5 billion – only half the £10 billion net contribution we will save when we leave – giving plenty of scope to compensate farmers and others facing high tariffs while they adapt. 

In short, leaving with no withdrawal agreement but an array of mini-deals will probably be more like the Millennium Bug than the apocalypse threatened by Project Fear Mark II. If the

Conservative Party nonetheless scares itself into postponing Brexit and breaking its manifesto pledges, it will deserve to follow the Lib Dems into obscurity.